shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-03 16:59:58 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get eu-winter-gas-squeeze-2026
> status: 0.46 ELEVATED
> severity 4.1 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-10

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.13/b ●
TTF       €44.25/MWh ●
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.8 ▼
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%
~/scenarios/eu-winter-gas-squeeze-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/eu-winter-gas-squeeze-2026
// EU-GAS-2026 · ELEVATED

European winter gas-supply squeeze.

45 European markets · gas + power + storage refill

ELEVATEDSTATUSELEVATED
ELEVATEDPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.46
ELEVATEDSEVERITY4.1/ 5
ELEVATEDLAST REVIEW2026-05-10
probability 0.46
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario EU-GAS-2026·last revision 2026-05-10
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-10

European winter gas-supply squeeze.

// The hypothesis

A cold European winter coincides with constrained LNG imports and the loss of remaining Russian pipeline volumes, drawing storage down faster than it can be refilled.

45 European markets · gas + power + storage refill

// Modelled impact

Wholesale gas and power prices spike across interconnected European markets; storage exits winter well below the five-year mean, forcing an expensive and competitive summer refill.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

GAS.TTFEU Gas TTF · spot $3.250/MMBtuOIL.BRTBrent Crude · spot $72.13/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Germany / DEUregion Europe · stress 0.42France / FRAregion Europe · stress 0.38Belgium / BELregion Europe · stress 0.46Spain / ESPregion Europe · stress 0.43Netherlands / NLDregion Europe · stress 0.44Italy / ITAregion Europe · stress 0.46Poland / POLregion Europe · stress 0.43Portugal / PRTregion Europe · stress 0.42Greece / GRCregion Europe · stress 0.48Romania / ROUregion Europe · stress 0.40Sweden / SWEregion Europe · stress 0.30Austria / AUTregion Europe · stress 0.41Czechia / CZEregion Europe · stress 0.44Hungary / HUNregion Europe · stress 0.49Denmark / DNKregion Europe · stress 0.28Finland / FINregion Europe · stress 0.34Ireland / IRLregion Europe · stress 0.38Slovakia / SVKregion Europe · stress 0.50Bulgaria / BGRregion Europe · stress 0.47Croatia / HRVregion Europe · stress 0.41Lithuania / LTUregion Europe · stress 0.45Slovenia / SVNregion Europe · stress 0.40Latvia / LVAregion Europe · stress 0.44Estonia / ESTregion Europe · stress 0.42Cyprus / CYPregion Europe · stress 0.55Luxembourg / LUXregion Europe · stress 0.39Malta / MLTregion Europe · stress 0.52United Kingdom / GBRregion Europe · stress 0.36Norway / NORregion Europe · stress 0.16Switzerland / CHEregion Europe · stress 0.33Ukraine / UKRregion Europe · stress 0.84Iceland / ISLregion Europe · stress 0.22Belarus / BLRregion Europe · stress 0.58Moldova / MDAregion Europe · stress 0.62Serbia / SRBregion Europe · stress 0.47Bosnia and Herzegovina / BIHregion Europe · stress 0.49Albania / ALBregion Europe · stress 0.42North Macedonia / MKDregion Europe · stress 0.45Montenegro / MNEregion Europe · stress 0.41Kosovo / XKXregion Europe · stress 0.55Andorra / ANDregion Europe · stress 0.30Monaco / MCOregion Europe · stress 0.31San Marino / SMRregion Europe · stress 0.33Liechtenstein / LIEregion Europe · stress 0.30Vatican City / VATregion Europe · stress 0.25

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40