NORTHSEA-2026 — North Sea supply cliff accelerates UK and Norwegian export decline.

$_TICKER

BRENT$91.00● 0.0%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.78● 0.0%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.77/bu▼0.77%BRENT$91.00● 0.0%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.78● 0.0%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.77/bu▼0.77%

READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario NORTHSEA-2026·last revision 2026-05-04

Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-04

North Sea supply cliff accelerates UK and Norwegian export decline.

// The hypothesis

Underinvestment and faster-than-expected field decline cut North Sea oil and gas output sharply over a single year.

4 North Sea producers · oil + gas exports

// Modelled impact

The United Kingdom's gas import dependence deepens and Norway's export surplus narrows, tightening the north-west European balance and lifting prices for connected markets.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model

Disruption duration5d

Affected supply share35%

Recovery period14wk

SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d

CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d

EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%

RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

// node

// $_ exec

// readout · live

North Sea supply cliff accelerates UK and Norwegian export decline.

North Sea supply cliff accelerates UK and Norwegian export decline.

// The hypothesis

// Modelled impact

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

[ 02 ] $_COMMODITIES · affected

[ 03 ] $_COUNTRIES · exposure

[ 04 ] $_SCENARIOS · related register