shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 15:50:29 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get us-gulf-refining-strain-2026
> status: 0.36 WATCH
> severity 2.7 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-04

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.84/b ▲
TTF       €63.73/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.84▲1.11%TTF€63.73▲1.61%HH$2.74▲0.74%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.88/bu▲0.07%BRENT$91.84▲1.11%TTF€63.73▲1.61%HH$2.74▲0.74%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.88/bu▲0.07%
~/scenarios/us-gulf-refining-strain-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/us-gulf-refining-strain-2026
// US-GULF-2026 · WATCH

US Gulf Coast refining strain.

United States + Mexico · refined products

WATCHSTATUSWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.36
WATCHSEVERITY2.7/ 5
WATCHLAST REVIEW2026-05-04
probability 0.36
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario US-GULF-2026·last revision 2026-05-04
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-04

US Gulf Coast refining strain.

// The hypothesis

Iran-war crude-quality shifts and maintenance backlogs reduce effective US Gulf Coast refining throughput during peak demand.

United States + Mexico · refined products

// Modelled impact

Gasoline and diesel cracks widen, lifting pump prices across the United States and Mexico and tightening regional product exports.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

OIL.BRTBrent Crude · spot $91.37/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

United States / USAregion North America · stress 0.18Mexico / MEXregion North America · stress 0.42

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50