shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 08:49:22 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get west-africa-power-deficit-2026
> status: 0.47 WATCH
> severity 3.3 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-07

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.25/b ▲
TTF       €62.58/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$90.99▼0.28%TTF€62.58▲0.37%HH$2.70▼0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.92/bu▼0.07%BRENT$90.99▼0.28%TTF€62.58▲0.37%HH$2.70▼0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.92/bu▼0.07%
~/scenarios/west-africa-power-deficit-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/west-africa-power-deficit-2026
// WAFRICA-POWER-2026 · WATCH

West African power deficit.

13 West African economies · power + industry

WATCHSTATUSWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.47
WATCHSEVERITY3.3/ 5
WATCHLAST REVIEW2026-05-07
probability 0.47
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario WAFRICA-POWER-2026·last revision 2026-05-07
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-07

West African power deficit.

// The hypothesis

Import-fuel costs and weak grids leave West African power systems short of reliable generation.

13 West African economies · power + industry

// Modelled impact

Industry and services face frequent outages from Nigeria to Cabo Verde, raising costs and slowing growth.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

OIL.BRTBrent Crude · spot $90.99/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Nigeria / NGAregion West Africa · stress 0.64Ghana / GHAregion West Africa · stress 0.55Côte d'Ivoire / CIVregion West Africa · stress 0.50Senegal / SENregion West Africa · stress 0.56Benin / BENregion West Africa · stress 0.57Togo / TGOregion West Africa · stress 0.58Guinea / GINregion West Africa · stress 0.60Sierra Leone / SLEregion West Africa · stress 0.66Liberia / LBRregion West Africa · stress 0.65Mauritania / MRTregion West Africa · stress 0.63Gambia / GMBregion West Africa · stress 0.60Guinea-Bissau / GNBregion West Africa · stress 0.67Cabo Verde / CPVregion West Africa · stress 0.55

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50