$ shortage scenario get sanctions-q3 > status: 0.58 WATCH > severity 3.0 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-09
BRENT $71.19/b ▲ TTF €44.4/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
2 countries primary · 12 cascade exposure
A further round of secondary sanctions targets Iranian petrochemical subsidiaries and their shadow-fleet logistics.
2 countries primary · 12 cascade exposure
Iranian crude export utilisation falls a further 0.3–0.5 mb/d; shadow-fleet capacity re-routes to other lanes, raising freight costs region-wide.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.