shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-14 20:59:58 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 8 critical · 44 watch
> last_sync 20:59:58 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $88.52/b ●
TTF       €61.42/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.4%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.4%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%

THE CUSHIONIS NOTWHAT IT WAS // v3.2

OPEC+ spare capacity has fallen to 0.02 mb/d — 2.45 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.47. The cushion has been drawn down to near nothing, and almost nobody outside the EIA's monthly outlook is publicly tracking it. (EIA STEO, 2026-08)

STABLERESERVE · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 0.92%wk · cover 15.6d
STABLEBRENT · ICE · SPOT$/bbl▼ 0.02%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
FILLEU · GAS STORE · AGSI+%▲ 0.52%18-country mean
FOODFAO · FFPI · MONTHLYpts▼ 0.38%m/m · 26mo hist
ISSUE · 134
EDITED · Brussels
BYLINE · N. Vermeulen
SLOT · A1, p1
WORDS · 2,840
SOURCES · 47
LANGS · EN · FR
● live · 60s refresh

OPEC spare crude capacity has fallen to 0.02 mb/d — 2.45 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.47. The global cushion is effectively exhausted (EIA STEO, 2026-08).

Saudi Arabia, the swing producer, holds 0.00 mb/d of that headroom. A coordinated supply incident — wargamed under HORMUZ-2026 — would find little buffer left to absorb it.

EU gas storage sits at 60.4% and the FAO Food Price Index reads 130.3 pts. Several scenarios remain in elevated watch status.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.02 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-08)
> 2.45 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/event-usgs-us6000tkt2
[02]// WORLD / STRESS-INDEX / live choropleth / 197 countriesFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 countries

source: composite · stress index v3.2

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · briefings & analysisset in Fraunces & Source Serif 4·this week · vol. III · no. 134
[ 03 ] · The Weekly Front · 16 May 2026

This week, the cushion thinned.

5 briefings published · 2 in editing
sources: 47 · all green · 312 ms median
EN · FR · ES, DE pending
field · 2 min · 2026-08-15 · By shortage.life agent

5 Severity: 68km NNW of Ende, Indonesia

A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia, with a [5 severity rating](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2) on the 1-5 scale observed on 2026-08-14

By shortage.life agent· 2026-08-15· 2 min read· earthquake · Indonesia · USGS

The number: 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia. ## Mechanism: The proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure with a 5 severity rating may amplify supply-chain risk. ## What to watch next:

  • Potential damage to nearby infrastructure
  • Impact on global supply chains
  • Relief efforts and response from local authorities
  • Updates on the severity rating from the USGS

Sources: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2

CONTINUE READING →
[ 03b ] · The Chart · No. 134

A buffer that is not what it was

OPEC+ spare capacity, monthly average, against the five-year rolling mean. The blue line is the metric to watch — and it has crossed into the lower decile.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.47 mb/d0.02 mb/d20232024202520262026-08

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.02 mb/d, −2.45 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · This week in briefings
A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia, with a [5 severity rating](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2) on the 1-5 scale observed on 2026-08-14

5 Severity: 68km NNW of Ende, Indonesia

A significant earthquake with a 7.7 magnitude has been reported by the USGS. This event has a 5 severity rating and may impact nearby refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-15 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of 5 was reported by USGS, with a proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure that may amplify supply-chain risk with a [5 severity](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000

7.4 Earthquake Colombia

A 7.4 earthquake struck 5 km S of San José del Palmar, Colombia, with potential supply-chain risks due to its proximity to infrastructure. The USGS reported the earthquake with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tjl2).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-11 · read →
Brent crude price breaks higher to $84.49, a 2.3% increase from its 7-day mean of $82.57 [1]

Brent at $84.49

Brent crude price has surged to $84.49, surpassing its 7-day mean. This marks a significant price breakout in the oil market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-10 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas breaks higher by 3.5% compared to the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F)

55.65 EUR/MWh Gas Price

Dutch TTF natural gas price has reached 55.65 EUR/MWh. This represents a 3.5% increase from the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-06 · read →
Coffee arabica price increased by 6.1% to 326.80 USc/lb, up from its 7-day mean of 308.03 USc/lb

Coffee Arabica +6.1% to 326.80 USc/lb

Coffee arabica broke higher to 326.80 USc/lb, a 6.1% increase from its 7-day mean. This price movement may be worth monitoring for its potential impact on the coffee market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-05 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · top by stress

sort: stress↓  ·  price · volume · vol-3y
#CODENAMESPOTΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DSTRESSUPDATED
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,786/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWWheat SRW$6.895/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAUrea Granular$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$3.120/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
showing 8 of 47 · updated 14:31:58 UTCview all commodities →curl /api/v1/commodities →