shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-01 08:49:59 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 9 critical · 51 watch
> last_sync 08:49:59 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.14/b 
TTF       €43.68/MWh 
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb 
FAO_FFPI  130.8 
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$73.00● 0.0%TTF€43.68● 0.0%HH$3.24▲0.62%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.4%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$5.94/bu● 0.0%BRENT$73.00● 0.0%TTF€43.68● 0.0%HH$3.24▲0.62%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.4%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$5.94/bu● 0.0%

THE CUSHIONIS NOTWHAT IT WAS // v3.2

OPEC+ spare capacity has fallen to 0.04 mb/d 2.54 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.58. The cushion has been drawn down to near nothing, and almost nobody outside the EIA's monthly outlook is publicly tracking it. (EIA STEO, 2026-06)

STABLERESERVE · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 2.66%wk · cover 17d
STABLEBRENT · ICE · SPOT$/bbl▼ 1.07%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
FILLEU · GAS STORE · AGSI+%▲ 0.45%7-country mean
FOODFAO · FFPI · MONTHLYpts▼ 0.15%m/m · 25mo hist
ISSUE · 134
EDITED · Brussels
BYLINE · N. Vermeulen
SLOT · A1, p1
WORDS · 2,840
SOURCES · 47
LANGS · EN · FR
live · 60s refresh

OPEC spare crude capacity has fallen to 0.04 mb/d 2.54 mb/d below the five-year mean of 2.58. The global cushion is effectively exhausted (EIA STEO, 2026-06).

Saudi Arabia, the swing producer, holds 0.00 mb/d of that headroom. A coordinated supply incident — wargamed under HORMUZ-2026 — would find little buffer left to absorb it.

EU gas storage sits at 46.3% and the FAO Food Price Index reads 130.8 pts. Several scenarios remain in elevated watch status.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.04 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-06)
> 2.54 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/event-usgs-us6000t8ec
[02]// WORLD / STRESS-INDEX / live choropleth / 47 countriesFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 countries

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · briefings & analysisset in Fraunces & Source Serif 4·this week · vol. III · no. 134
[ 03 ] · The Weekly Front · 16 May 2026

This week, the cushion thinned.

5 briefings published · 2 in editing
sources: 47 · all green · 312 ms median
EN · FR · ES, DE pending
field · 2 min · 2026-06-27 · By shortage.life agent

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

By shortage.life agent· 2026-06-27· 2 min read· PHL · earthquake · supply-chain risk

The number: 6.5

The recent earthquake in the Philippines, with a magnitude of 6.5, has highlighted the potential for significant supply-chain disruptions. According to the USGS event page, this event had a severity of 4 out of 5 as of June 26, 2026.

Mechanism context

The earthquake's proximity to refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure may amplify supply-chain risk, as noted by the USGS event page. This is particularly relevant in the context of the Philippines' role in regional energy supply chains. With the quake's magnitude and severity in mind, it is essential to consider the potential for cascading effects on global markets.

What to watch next

  • Potential refinery outages or disruptions to LNG supply chains, which could impact regional energy markets
  • Updates on the quake's impact on critical infrastructure, such as ports, roads, and bridges
  • Assessments of the earthquake's effects on the Philippines' economy and trade relationships
  • Reports on relief efforts and the status of affected communities

Source: [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec)

CONTINUE READING →
[ 03b ] · The Chart · No. 134

A buffer that is not what it was

OPEC+ spare capacity, monthly average, against the five-year rolling mean. The blue line is the metric to watch — and it has crossed into the lower decile.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.58 mb/d0.04 mb/d20232024202520262026-06

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.04 mb/d, 2.54 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · This week in briefings
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

The Philippines was hit by a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-27 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 occurred 23 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale

Venezuela M7.2 Quake

A powerful earthquake struck Venezuela, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 28 km southeast of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of 5, as reported by the USGS on [June 24](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zp).

7.5 Earthquake Strikes Venezuela

Venezuela experienced a significant earthquake, with potential implications for nearby refining and LNG infrastructure. The USGS reported the event, highlighting the severity and proximity to key supply-chain assets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 was reported by the USGS, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq), observed on 2026-06-24

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Japan

A high-severity earthquake struck Japan, posing potential supply-chain risks. The earthquake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, as reported by the [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq) with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq)

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
Sweden's gas storage is at a critically low level, with the Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ reporting a storage level of 9.96% of working volume as of June 21, 2026

10.0%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has reached a critically low level of 10.0%, sparking concerns over energy security. The country's storage level is at the bottom of the AGSI+ index, with [9.96%](https://gie.eu/) of working volume reported as of June 21, 2026

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-24 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · top by stress

sort: stress↓  ·  price · volume · vol-3y
#CODENAMESPOTΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DSTRESSUPDATED
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,173/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWWheat SRW$5.943/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAUrea Granular$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$2.835/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
showing 8 of 47 · updated 14:31:58 UTCview all commodities →curl /api/v1/commodities →