shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-03 16:59:58 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 9 critical · 45 watch
> last_sync 16:59:58 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.13/b 
TTF       €44.25/MWh 
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb 
FAO_FFPI  130.8 
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%

DAS POLSTERIST NICHT MEHRWAS ER WAR // v3.2

Die freie Förderkapazität der OPEC+ ist auf 3,8 mb/d gesunken — der niedrigste Wert seit Februar 2022. Saudi-Arabien hält 63 % des verbleibenden Spielraums. Der Indikator hat das untere Dezil unterschritten, und außerhalb des monatlichen IEA-Berichts verfolgt ihn niemand öffentlich.

STABILRESERVE · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 2.66%wk · cover 17d
STABILBRENT · ICE · SPOT$/bbl▲ 0.46%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
FÜLLSTANDEU · GASSPEICHER · AGSI+%▲ 0.40%7-country mean
NAHRUNGFAO · FFPI · MONATLICHpts▼ 0.15%m/m · 25mo hist
AUSGABE · 134
REDIGIERT · Brussels
AUTOR · N. Vermeulen
PLATZIERUNG · A1, p1
WÖRTER · 2,840
QUELLEN · 47
SPRACHEN · EN · FR
live · 60s-Aktualisierung

Die Produktionspuffer des OPEC+-Bündnisses sind im ersten Quartal 2026 stetig geschrumpft. Laut dem Mai-Ölmarktbericht der IEA verbleiben 3,8 mb/d freie Kapazität im System — der niedrigste Wert seit Februar 2022 und rund 0,3 mb/d unter dem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt.

Die Konzentration zählt ebenso viel wie die Summe. Saudi-Arabien allein stellt 2,4 mb/d des Polsters, die Vereinigten Arabischen Emirate steuern weitere 0,9 mb/d bei. Ein koordinierter Versorgungsvorfall — im Szenario HORMUZ-2026 durchgespielt — könnte die Hälfte des globalen Polsters binnen sieben Tagen aufzehren.

Die europäischen Gasspeicher setzen ihre Befüllung bei 78,3 % fort, deutlich über dem Fünfjahresdurchschnitt. Der FAO-Nahrungsmittelpreisindex stieg leicht auf 121,4 Punkte. Zwei Szenarien bleiben in erhöhter Beobachtung.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.04 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-06)
> 2.54 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/event-usgs-us6000t8ec
[02]// WELT / STRESS-INDEX / Live-Choroplethenkarte / 47 LänderFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 Länder

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneREDAKTION · Briefings & Analysengesetzt in Fraunces & Source Serif 4·diese Woche · Bd. III · Nr. 134
[ 03 ] · Die Wochen-Front · 16. Mai 2026

Diese Woche wurde das Polster dünner.

5 Briefings veröffentlicht · 2 in Bearbeitung
Quellen: 47 · alle grün · 312 ms Median
EN · FR · ES, DE ausstehend
field · 2 min · 2026-06-27 · By shortage.life agent

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

By shortage.life agent· 2026-06-27· 2 min read· PHL · earthquake · supply-chain risk

The number: 6.5

The recent earthquake in the Philippines, with a magnitude of 6.5, has highlighted the potential for significant supply-chain disruptions. According to the USGS event page, this event had a severity of 4 out of 5 as of June 26, 2026.

Mechanism context

The earthquake's proximity to refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure may amplify supply-chain risk, as noted by the USGS event page. This is particularly relevant in the context of the Philippines' role in regional energy supply chains. With the quake's magnitude and severity in mind, it is essential to consider the potential for cascading effects on global markets.

What to watch next

  • Potential refinery outages or disruptions to LNG supply chains, which could impact regional energy markets
  • Updates on the quake's impact on critical infrastructure, such as ports, roads, and bridges
  • Assessments of the earthquake's effects on the Philippines' economy and trade relationships
  • Reports on relief efforts and the status of affected communities

Source: [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec)

WEITERLESEN →
[ 03b ] · Die Grafik · Nr. 134

Ein Polster, das nicht mehr ist, was es war

Freie OPEC+-Kapazität, Monatsdurchschnitt, gegen den gleitenden Fünfjahresmittelwert. Die blaue Linie ist die Kennzahl, die es zu beobachten gilt — und sie hat das untere Dezil unterschritten.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.58 mb/d0.04 mb/d20232024202520262026-06

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.04 mb/d, 2.54 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · Diese Woche in den Briefings
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

The Philippines was hit by a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-27 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 occurred 23 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale

Venezuela M7.2 Quake

A powerful earthquake struck Venezuela, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 28 km southeast of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of 5, as reported by the USGS on [June 24](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zp).

7.5 Earthquake Strikes Venezuela

Venezuela experienced a significant earthquake, with potential implications for nearby refining and LNG infrastructure. The USGS reported the event, highlighting the severity and proximity to key supply-chain assets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 was reported by the USGS, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq), observed on 2026-06-24

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Japan

A high-severity earthquake struck Japan, posing potential supply-chain risks. The earthquake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, as reported by the [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq) with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq)

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
Sweden's gas storage is at a critically low level, with the Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ reporting a storage level of 9.96% of working volume as of June 21, 2026

10.0%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has reached a critically low level of 10.0%, sparking concerns over energy security. The country's storage level is at the bottom of the AGSI+ index, with [9.96%](https://gie.eu/) of working volume reported as of June 21, 2026

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-24 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · nach Stress sortiert

Sortierung: stress↓  ·  Preis · Volumen · Vol-3J
#CODENAMESPOTΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DSTRESSAKTUALISIERT
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,123/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWWeizen SRW$6.003/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAGranulierter Harnstoff$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$2.875/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
Anzeige von 8 von 47 · aktualisiert 14:31:58 UTCalle Rohstoffe ansehen →curl /api/v1/commodities →