# shortage.life — Full Content Corpus

> Real-time global shortage intelligence: strategic reserves, energy, food, fertilizer and critical minerals, mapped country by country and modelled as forward scenarios.

Site build 0.3.0 · last updated 2026-05-17 · license CC-BY-4.0 · publisher CryptaGuard BV.
Cite as "Source: shortage.life" with a backlink. Editorial language English; translations under /fr, /es, /de.

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## Commodities

### Brent Crude (OIL.BRT)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/oil
- Category: energy · Unit: $/bbl
- Spot: $84.27 · Stress index: 0.62
- Change: 24h ▲0.50% · 7d ▲1.42% · 30d ▼2.47%
- Last update: 14:31

The global crude benchmark. Watched for spare-capacity tightness and Persian Gulf transit risk.

### EU Gas TTF (GAS.TTF)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/gas
- Category: energy · Unit: €/MWh
- Spot: €31.50 · Stress index: 0.58
- Change: 24h ▼3.67% · 7d ▼5.10% · 30d ▼12.4%
- Last update: 14:30

The European gas benchmark. Eased on a storage refill running ahead of the five-year mean.

### Wheat SRW (WHT.SRW)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/wheat
- Category: food · Unit: $/bu
- Spot: $6.42/bu · Stress index: 0.81
- Change: 24h ▲1.84% · 7d ▲4.30% · 30d ▲8.21%
- Last update: 14:30

Soft red winter wheat. Crossed the +1.5%/24h alert threshold on Black Sea corridor risk.

### Rice White Thai (RIC.WHT)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/rice
- Category: food · Unit: $/t
- Spot: $612/t · Stress index: 0.49
- Change: 24h ▲0.32% · 7d ▲0.50% · 30d ▲1.84%
- Last update: 14:29

Thai 5% white rice, the Asian export reference. Drifting up on thin exporter inventories.

### Urea Granular (FRT.UREA)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/urea
- Category: fertilizer · Unit: $/t
- Spot: $378/t · Stress index: 0.77
- Change: 24h ▲2.71% · 7d ▲5.04% · 30d ▲14.6%
- Last update: 14:28

Granular urea. The pre-monsoon arithmetic for South Asian agriculture is turning tight.

### Lithium Carbonate (MIN.LITH)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/lithium
- Category: critical_mineral · Unit: $/t
- Spot: $13,820/t · Stress index: 0.41
- Change: 24h ▼0.84% · 7d ▼2.10% · 30d ▼6.4%
- Last update: 14:28

Battery-grade lithium carbonate. Softening as new conversion capacity comes online.

### Cobalt (MIN.COBL)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/cobalt
- Category: critical_mineral · Unit: $/t
- Spot: $31,400/t · Stress index: 0.55
- Change: 24h — 0.00% · 7d ▲0.32% · 30d ▲1.61%
- Last update: 14:27

Standard-grade cobalt. Flat on the spot market; concentration risk keeps stress elevated.

### Ag. Water Index (H2O.AGR)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/commodities/water
- Category: water · Unit: idx
- Spot: — idx · Stress index: 0.66
- Change: 24h ▲4.20% · 7d ▲6.10% · 30d ▲12.4%
- Last update: 14:27

Composite agricultural water-stress index. Rising on drought signals across three basins.

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## Countries

### United States (USA)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/usa
- Region: North America · Capital: Washington, D.C. · Population: 342M
- Country stress index: 0.18 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### China (CHN)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/chn
- Region: East Asia · Capital: Beijing · Population: 1,411M
- Country stress index: 0.34 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### Russia (RUS)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/rus
- Region: Eurasia · Capital: Moscow · Population: 144M
- Country stress index: 0.55 · Status: warn · Tier: monitored

### Saudi Arabia (SAU)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/sau
- Region: MENA · Capital: Riyadh · Population: 37M
- Country stress index: 0.42 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### United Arab Emirates (ARE)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/are
- Region: MENA · Capital: Abu Dhabi · Population: 10M
- Country stress index: 0.38 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### Iran (IRN)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/irn
- Region: MENA · Capital: Tehran · Population: 88.5M
- Country stress index: 0.91 · Status: critical · Tier: monitored

### Iraq (IRQ)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/irq
- Region: MENA · Capital: Baghdad · Population: 45M
- Country stress index: 0.61 · Status: warn · Tier: monitored

### Germany (DEU)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/deu
- Region: Europe · Capital: Berlin · Population: 84M
- Country stress index: 0.42 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### India (IND)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/ind
- Region: South Asia · Capital: New Delhi · Population: 1,429M
- Country stress index: 0.47 · Status: stable · Tier: monitored

### Pakistan (PAK)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/pak
- Region: South Asia · Capital: Islamabad · Population: 241M
- Country stress index: 0.73 · Status: warn · Tier: monitored

### Sudan (SDN)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/sdn
- Region: Sub-Saharan Africa · Capital: Khartoum · Population: 48M
- Country stress index: 0.88 · Status: critical · Tier: monitored

### Egypt (EGY)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/countries/egy
- Region: MENA · Capital: Cairo · Population: 114M
- Country stress index: 0.69 · Status: warn · Tier: monitored

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## Strategic Reserves

### US Strategic Petroleum Reserve

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/reserves/oil
- Value: 372.4 Mb · cover 18.7 days · ▲ +0.4% 7d
- Country: USA · Commodity: oil
- Source: EIA · Observed: 2026-05-14

### OPEC+ Spare Capacity

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/reserves/oil
- Value: 3.8 mb/d · −0.3 vs 5-year mean · 47 days below 4 mb/d
- Country: SAU · Commodity: oil
- Source: IEA · Observed: 2026-05-14

### EU Gas Storage

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/reserves/gas
- Value: 78.3 % · fill · +6.1 pp vs 5-year mean
- Country: DEU · Commodity: gas
- Source: AGSI+ · Observed: 2026-05-16

### China Strategic Reserve (est.)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/reserves/oil
- Value: ~280 Mb · estimated · opaque reporting
- Country: CHN · Commodity: oil
- Source: shortage.life model · Observed: 2026-05-01

### Iran Wheat Strategic Stocks

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/reserves/wheat
- Value: ~6 months · ≈ 24% of consumption imported
- Country: IRN · Commodity: wheat
- Source: FAO · Tehran Customs · Observed: 2026-05-08

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## Scenarios

### Persian Gulf 5-day tanker disruption. (HORMUZ-2026)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/scenarios/hormuz-2026
- Status: elevated · Probability: 0.34 · Severity: 4.2
- Last revision: 2026-04-28 · 8 countries affected · oil + wheat + insurance + lithium
- Commodities: oil, wheat, lithium · Countries: IRN, SAU, ARE, IRQ

**Hypothesis.** A non-state actor disrupts tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz for five working days.

**Impact.** Two-thirds of available OPEC+ spare capacity is mobilised by day three; the cushion does not recover for fourteen weeks. War-risk insurance premiums double within 36 hours.

### Q3 secondary sanctions on Iranian petrochem. (SANCTIONS-Q3)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/scenarios/sanctions-q3
- Status: watch · Probability: 0.58 · Severity: 3
- Last revision: 2026-05-09 · 2 countries primary · 12 cascade exposure
- Commodities: oil · Countries: IRN

**Hypothesis.** A further round of secondary sanctions targets Iranian petrochemical subsidiaries and their shadow-fleet logistics.

**Impact.** Iranian crude export utilisation falls a further 0.3–0.5 mb/d; shadow-fleet capacity re-routes to other lanes, raising freight costs region-wide.

### Russia / Kazakhstan wheat export quota tightening. (WHEAT-2026)

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/scenarios/wheat-2026
- Status: monitoring · Probability: 0.22 · Severity: 3.5
- Last revision: 2026-05-02 · 11 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration
- Commodities: wheat · Countries: IRN, EGY

**Hypothesis.** Russia and Kazakhstan tighten wheat export quotas ahead of an uncertain harvest.

**Impact.** Import-dependent MENA and North African states face a sharp rise in the landed cost of wheat; strategic-stock drawdowns accelerate.

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## Events

### OFAC adds 11 petrochem subsidiaries to SDN list

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/ofac-petrochem-sdn-2026-05-14
- Date: 2026-05-14 · Category: SANC · Severity: 4
- Countries: IRN · Source: Treasury

The US Treasury adds 11 additional Iranian petrochemical subsidiaries to the SDN list. Shadow-fleet redirections expected within two weeks.

### Tanker incident near the Strait of Hormuz

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/hormuz-tanker-incident-2026-05-12
- Date: 2026-05-12 · Category: GEO · Severity: 4
- Countries: IRN, ARE · Source: Lloyd's

A tanker incident near the Strait of Hormuz. No casualties; insurance premiums up 8% on Gulf hulls.

### Central Bank revises wheat subsidy programme

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/iran-wheat-subsidy-2026-05-08
- Date: 2026-05-08 · Category: ECON · Severity: 3
- Countries: IRN · Source: CBI

Iran's Central Bank revises its wheat subsidy programme; bread prices in urban centres rise 14%.

### IRGC announces redeployment of patrol assets

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/irgc-strait-redeployment-2026-05-04
- Date: 2026-05-04 · Category: MIL · Severity: 3
- Countries: IRN · Source: IRNA

The IRGC announces a redeployment of patrol assets along the Strait. Operational tempo unchanged for now.

### Rial closes at a record low on the open market

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/rial-record-low-2026-04-29
- Date: 2026-04-29 · Category: ECON · Severity: 3
- Countries: IRN · Source: Bonbast

The rial closes at IRR 612,000 / USD on the open market — a record low; the official-rate gap widens to 31%.

### Heavy rainfall in Khuzestan province

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/khuzestan-rainfall-2026-04-25
- Date: 2026-04-25 · Category: CLIM · Severity: 2
- Countries: IRN · Source: IRNA

Heavy rainfall in Khuzestan province causes minor disruption to the oil-field road network. No production impact.

### EU renews general sanctions package

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/eu-sanctions-renewal-2026-04-22
- Date: 2026-04-22 · Category: SANC · Severity: 2
- Countries: IRN · Source: EUR-Lex

The EU renews its general sanctions package for a further 12 months. No new listings.

### Black Sea grain corridor inspection backlog

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/events/black-sea-inspection-backlog-2026-05-13
- Date: 2026-05-13 · Category: GEO · Severity: 3
- Countries: RUS · Source: JCC

An inspection backlog builds at the Black Sea grain corridor; vessel waiting times double week-on-week.

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## Briefings

### The thin blue line.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/thin-blue-line
- Feature · Energy · By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-15 · 14 min read
- Tags: energy, oil, opec, scenario

Why OPEC+ spare capacity below four million barrels a day is the metric to watch — and the one no one is publicly tracking.

### EU storage is ahead of schedule — but Norway's role is quietly shrinking.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/eu-storage-norway
- Data · Gas · By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-13 · 6 min read
- Tags: gas, europe, storage

Third consecutive week above the five-year mean. Russia replaced; Norway eased; the question is the LNG slack.

### Black Sea grain corridor: three trigger pathways for a Q3 disruption.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/black-sea-corridor
- Scenario · Food · By A. Petrov · 2026-05-12 · 9 min read
- Tags: food, wheat, scenario

A wargamed disruption to the corridor: weather, insurance, kinetic. Each path has a different signature.

### What three weeks at the Suez Canal Authority told us about insurance pricing.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/suez-insurance
- Field note · MENA · By R. Achour · 2026-05-10 · 8 min read
- Tags: geopolitics, shipping, insurance

War-risk premiums have moved twice this quarter. They are leading the freight rate, not following it.

### Urea above $375 a tonne: the pre-monsoon arithmetic for South Asian agriculture.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/urea-monsoon
- Data · Fertilizer · By S. Iyer · 2026-05-09 · 7 min read
- Tags: fertilizer, urea, south-asia

Indian states have begun stockpiling; Pakistan has not. The price elasticity is asymmetric.

### How we compute the country stress index, and what changed in v3.2.

- URL: https://shortage.life/en/briefings/stress-index-v32
- Methodology · v3.2 · By Editorial · 2026-05-09 · 11 min read
- Tags: methodology

Five inputs, four weights, one composite. We added fiscal headroom and removed a redundant trade-balance term.