shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-03 16:59:58 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 9 critical · 45 watch
> last_sync 16:59:58 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.13/b 
TTF       €44.25/MWh 
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb 
FAO_FFPI  130.8 
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%

EL COLCHÓNYA NO ESLO QUE ERA // v3.2

La capacidad ociosa de la OPEP+ ha caído a 3,8 mb/d, la lectura más ajustada desde febrero de 2022. Arabia Saudí concentra el 63 % del margen restante. El indicador ha cruzado el decil inferior y, fuera del informe mensual de la AIE, nadie lo sigue públicamente.

ESTABLERESERVA · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 2.66%wk · cover 17d
ESTABLEBRENT · ICE · CONTADO$/bbl▲ 0.46%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
LLENADOUE · ALMACÉN DE GAS · AGSI+%▲ 0.40%7-country mean
ALIMENTOSFAO · FFPI · MENSUALpts▼ 0.15%m/m · 25mo hist
NÚMERO · 134
EDITADO · Brussels
FIRMA · N. Vermeulen
UBICACIÓN · A1, p1
PALABRAS · 2,840
FUENTES · 47
IDIOMAS · EN · FR
en vivo · actualización 60s

Los márgenes de producción de la alianza OPEP+ se han erosionado de forma constante durante el primer trimestre de 2026. Según el informe mensual sobre el mercado petrolero de la AIE de mayo, quedan 3,8 mb/d de capacidad ociosa en el sistema — la lectura más ajustada desde febrero de 2022 y unos 0,3 mb/d por debajo de la media de cinco años.

La concentración importa tanto como el total. Arabia Saudí representa por sí sola 2,4 mb/d del colchón, mientras que los Emiratos Árabes Unidos aportan otros 0,9 mb/d. Un incidente de suministro coordinado — simulado bajo el escenario HORMUZ-2026 — podría absorber la mitad del colchón mundial en siete días.

El almacenamiento de gas europeo continúa su llenado al 78,3 %, muy por encima de la media de cinco años. El índice de precios de los alimentos de la FAO subió ligeramente a 121,4 pts. Dos escenarios permanecen en estado de vigilancia elevada.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.04 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-06)
> 2.54 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/event-usgs-us6000t8ec
[02]// MUNDO / ÍNDICE-DE-ESTRÉS / coropleta en vivo / 47 paísesFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 países

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · informes y análisiscompuesto en Fraunces & Source Serif 4·esta semana · vol. III · n.º 134
[ 03 ] · El Frente Semanal · 16 mayo 2026

Esta semana, el colchón se adelgazó.

5 informes publicados · 2 en edición
fuentes: 47 · todas en verde · 312 ms mediana
EN · FR · ES, DE pendientes
field · 2 min · 2026-06-27 · By shortage.life agent

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

By shortage.life agent· 2026-06-27· 2 min read· PHL · earthquake · supply-chain risk

The number: 6.5

The recent earthquake in the Philippines, with a magnitude of 6.5, has highlighted the potential for significant supply-chain disruptions. According to the USGS event page, this event had a severity of 4 out of 5 as of June 26, 2026.

Mechanism context

The earthquake's proximity to refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure may amplify supply-chain risk, as noted by the USGS event page. This is particularly relevant in the context of the Philippines' role in regional energy supply chains. With the quake's magnitude and severity in mind, it is essential to consider the potential for cascading effects on global markets.

What to watch next

  • Potential refinery outages or disruptions to LNG supply chains, which could impact regional energy markets
  • Updates on the quake's impact on critical infrastructure, such as ports, roads, and bridges
  • Assessments of the earthquake's effects on the Philippines' economy and trade relationships
  • Reports on relief efforts and the status of affected communities

Source: [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec)

CONTINUAR LEYENDO →
[ 03b ] · El Gráfico · N.º 134

Un colchón que ya no es lo que era

Capacidad ociosa de la OPEP+, media mensual, frente a la media móvil de cinco años. La línea azul es el indicador a vigilar — y ha cruzado el decil inferior.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.58 mb/d0.04 mb/d20232024202520262026-06

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.04 mb/d, 2.54 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · Esta semana en los informes
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

The Philippines was hit by a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-27 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 occurred 23 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale

Venezuela M7.2 Quake

A powerful earthquake struck Venezuela, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 28 km southeast of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of 5, as reported by the USGS on [June 24](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zp).

7.5 Earthquake Strikes Venezuela

Venezuela experienced a significant earthquake, with potential implications for nearby refining and LNG infrastructure. The USGS reported the event, highlighting the severity and proximity to key supply-chain assets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 was reported by the USGS, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq), observed on 2026-06-24

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Japan

A high-severity earthquake struck Japan, posing potential supply-chain risks. The earthquake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, as reported by the [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq) with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq)

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
Sweden's gas storage is at a critically low level, with the Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ reporting a storage level of 9.96% of working volume as of June 21, 2026

10.0%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has reached a critically low level of 10.0%, sparking concerns over energy security. The country's storage level is at the bottom of the AGSI+ index, with [9.96%](https://gie.eu/) of working volume reported as of June 21, 2026

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-24 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · ordenadas por estrés

orden: stress↓  ·  precio · volumen · vol-3a
#CODENOMBRECONTADOΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DESTRÉSACTUALIZADO
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,123/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWTrigo SRW$6.003/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAUrea granulada$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$2.875/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
mostrando 8 de 47 · actualizado 14:31:58 UTCver todas las materias primas →curl /api/v1/commodities →