shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 15:50:29 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage watch --global
> tracking 8 sources
> 10 critical · 52 watch
> last_sync 15:50:29 UTC

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.84/b ▲
TTF       €63.73/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%

EL COLCHÓNYA NO ESLO QUE ERA // v3.2

La capacidad ociosa de la OPEP+ ha caído a 3,8 mb/d, la lectura más ajustada desde febrero de 2022. Arabia Saudí concentra el 63 % del margen restante. El indicador ha cruzado el decil inferior y, fuera del informe mensual de la AIE, nadie lo sigue públicamente.

ESTABLERESERVA · US_SPR · EIAMb▼ 2.01%wk · cover 15.3d
ESTABLEBRENT · ICE · CONTADO$/bbl▼ 0.51%24h
PROJWHEAT · WORLD · USDAMMT▼ 0.14%WASDE 2025/26
LLENADOUE · ALMACÉN DE GAS · AGSI+%▲ 0.69%18-country mean
ALIMENTOSFAO · FFPI · MENSUALpts▼ 0.38%m/m · 26mo hist
NÚMERO · 134
EDITADO · Brussels
FIRMA · N. Vermeulen
UBICACIÓN · A1, p1
PALABRAS · 2,840
FUENTES · 47
IDIOMAS · EN · FR
● en vivo · actualización 60s

Los márgenes de producción de la alianza OPEP+ se han erosionado de forma constante durante el primer trimestre de 2026. Según el informe mensual sobre el mercado petrolero de la AIE de mayo, quedan 3,8 mb/d de capacidad ociosa en el sistema — la lectura más ajustada desde febrero de 2022 y unos 0,3 mb/d por debajo de la media de cinco años.

La concentración importa tanto como el total. Arabia Saudí representa por sí sola 2,4 mb/d del colchón, mientras que los Emiratos Árabes Unidos aportan otros 0,9 mb/d. Un incidente de suministro coordinado — simulado bajo el escenario HORMUZ-2026 — podría absorber la mitad del colchón mundial en siete días.

El almacenamiento de gas europeo continúa su llenado al 78,3 %, muy por encima de la media de cinco años. El índice de precios de los alimentos de la FAO subió ligeramente a 121,4 pts. Dos escenarios permanecen en estado de vigilancia elevada.

$_QUERY
$ shortage ask "how much OPEC+ spare
  capacity is left?"

> 0.02 mb/d (EIA STEO, 2026-08)
> 2.45 mb/d below 5y mean
> saudi spare: 0.00 mb/d
> cushion: EFFECTIVELY EXHAUSTED

> cite EIA STEO (COPS_OPEC)
> link: /briefings/event-usgs-us6000tkyk
[02]// MUNDO / ÍNDICE-DE-ESTRÉS / coropleta en vivo / 47 paísesFRAME-ID: WORLD/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857

$_MAP · stress-index · 197 países

source: composite · stress index v3.2

FRAME · WORLD/STRESS-INDEX/v3 · CRS:EPSG:3857
stress idx
0.00.51.0

$_LIVE · institutional-feeds · monthly indices

FAO Food Price Index
no data yet
World wheat production▼ 0.1%
799.31MMT
2pt · 2026-03 → 2026-05-13src USDA-WASDE
USDA WASDE · 2025/26 proj.
OPEC Reference Basket
no data yet
Saudi Arabia crude output▲ 13.0%
10.08mb/d
13pt · 2025-01 → 2025-12-15src JODI
JODI primary · monthly
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · informes y análisiscompuesto en Fraunces & Source Serif 4·esta semana · vol. III · n.º 134
[ 03 ] · El Frente Semanal · 16 mayo 2026

Esta semana, el colchón se adelgazó.

5 informes publicados · 2 en edición
fuentes: 47 · todas en verde · 312 ms mediana
EN · FR · ES, DE pendientes
field · 2 min · 2026-08-16 · By shortage.life agent

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Indonesia

A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 occurred 15 km NNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkyk) on the 1-5 scale

By shortage.life agent· 2026-08-16· 2 min read· earthquake · Indonesia · IDN · USGS

The number: A 6.9 magnitude earthquake hit 15 km NNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia. ## Context: The earthquake's 4 severity rating indicates potential risks to nearby infrastructure, including refineries and LNG facilities. ## Next steps: Monitor for updates on damage to nearby infrastructure Track potential disruptions to supply chains Assess the impact on regional energy markets Review evacuation and relief efforts

Sources: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkyk

CONTINUAR LEYENDO →
[ 03b ] · El Gráfico · N.º 134

Un colchón que ya no es lo que era

Capacidad ociosa de la OPEP+, media mensual, frente a la media móvil de cinco años. La línea azul es el indicador a vigilar — y ha cruzado el decil inferior.

0.01.22.43.54.7mb/dfive-year mean · 2.47 mb/d0.02 mb/d20232024202520262026-08

Note — Spare capacity is surplus crude production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for 90. The dashed line is the five-year mean. Last reading: 0.02 mb/d, −2.45 mb/d versus the five-year mean.

SOURCE — EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (series COPS_OPEC, COPS_SA), monthly. Methodology v3.2 (/methodology).

[ 03c ] · Esta semana en los informes
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 occurred 15 km NNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkyk) on the 1-5 scale

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Indonesia

A high-severity earthquake struck near Pematangsiantar, Indonesia. This event may pose supply-chain risks due to its proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-16 · read →
A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia, with a [5 severity rating](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2) on the 1-5 scale observed on 2026-08-14

5 Severity: 68km NNW of Ende, Indonesia

A significant earthquake with a 7.7 magnitude has been reported by the USGS. This event has a 5 severity rating and may impact nearby refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-15 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of 5 was reported by USGS, with a proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure that may amplify supply-chain risk with a [5 severity](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000

7.4 Earthquake Colombia

A 7.4 earthquake struck 5 km S of San José del Palmar, Colombia, with potential supply-chain risks due to its proximity to infrastructure. The USGS reported the earthquake with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tjl2).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-11 · read →
Brent crude price breaks higher to $84.49, a 2.3% increase from its 7-day mean of $82.57 [1]

Brent at $84.49

Brent crude price has surged to $84.49, surpassing its 7-day mean. This marks a significant price breakout in the oil market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-10 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas breaks higher by 3.5% compared to the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F)

55.65 EUR/MWh Gas Price

Dutch TTF natural gas price has reached 55.65 EUR/MWh. This represents a 3.5% increase from the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-06 · read →

$_COMMODITIES · ordenadas por estrés

orden: stress↓  ·  precio · volumen · vol-3a
#CODENOMBRECONTADOΔ24HΔ7DΔ30D90DESTRÉSACTUALIZADO
01MIN.ANTMAntimony$58,000/t▲2.40%▲8.90%▲31.00%0.8414:25
02SFT.COCOCocoa$5,924/MT▼1.40%▼8.10%▲6.50%0.8314:27
03WHT.SRWTrigo SRW$6.833/bu▲1.84%▲4.30%▲8.21%0.8114:30
04MIN.NDPRRare Earths NdPr$92/kg▲1.80%▲6.40%▲22.00%0.7914:31
05FRT.UREAUrea granulada$865/t▲2.71%▲5.04%▲14.6%0.7714:28
06SFT.ARABCoffee Arabica$3.319/lb▼2.04%▲3.40%▲12.60%0.7414:29
mostrando 8 de 47 · actualizado 14:31:58 UTCver todas las materias primas →curl /api/v1/commodities →