shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-14 20:59:58 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

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$ shortage briefing list --all
> 65 briefings published
> field · data · scenario · feature · methodology
> latest 2026-08-16

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BRENT     $88.52/b 
TTF       €61.42/MWh 
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b 
SPR_US    304.8 Mb 
FAO_FFPI  130.3 
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.7%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.7%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · briefings & analysisset in Fraunces & Source Serif 4·vol. III · no. 134
[ 01 ] · The Briefings Desk · 17 May 2026

Analysis, sourced and citable.

65 briefings published · 2 in editing
sources: 47 · all green · 312 ms median
EN · FR · ES, DE pending
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 occurred 15 km NNW of Pematangsiantar, Indonesia, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkyk) on the 1-5 scale · 2 min

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Indonesia

A high-severity earthquake struck near Pematangsiantar, Indonesia. This event may pose supply-chain risks due to its proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-16 · read →
A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck 68 km NNW of Ende, Indonesia, with a [5 severity rating](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tkt2) on the 1-5 scale observed on 2026-08-14 · 2 min

5 Severity: 68km NNW of Ende, Indonesia

A significant earthquake with a 7.7 magnitude has been reported by the USGS. This event has a 5 severity rating and may impact nearby refining, LNG, or chemical infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-15 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of 5 was reported by USGS, with a proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure that may amplify supply-chain risk with a [5 severity](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000 · 2 min

7.4 Earthquake Colombia

A 7.4 earthquake struck 5 km S of San José del Palmar, Colombia, with potential supply-chain risks due to its proximity to infrastructure. The USGS reported the earthquake with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tjl2).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-11 · read →
Brent crude price breaks higher to $84.49, a 2.3% increase from its 7-day mean of $82.57 [1] · 2 min

Brent at $84.49

Brent crude price has surged to $84.49, surpassing its 7-day mean. This marks a significant price breakout in the oil market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-10 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas breaks higher by 3.5% compared to the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F) · 2 min

55.65 EUR/MWh Gas Price

Dutch TTF natural gas price has reached 55.65 EUR/MWh. This represents a 3.5% increase from the 7-day mean of [53.78 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-06 · read →
Coffee arabica price increased by 6.1% to 326.80 USc/lb, up from its 7-day mean of 308.03 USc/lb · 2 min

Coffee Arabica +6.1% to 326.80 USc/lb

Coffee arabica broke higher to 326.80 USc/lb, a 6.1% increase from its 7-day mean. This price movement may be worth monitoring for its potential impact on the coffee market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-08-05 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000tgb9) on the 1-5 scale was reported by the USGS on July 28, 2026 · 2 min

M6.8 Earthquake Hits Japan

The M6.8 earthquake struck Japan, potentially disrupting supply chains due to its proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure. The USGS reported the earthquake on July 28, 2026, with a severity of 4

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-29 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas price dropped to 59.50 EUR/MWh, a -6.2% decrease from the 7-day mean of 63.41 EUR/MWh, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

TTF Gas Price: -6.2% to 59.50 EUR/MWh

TTF gas price decreased by 6.2% to 59.50 EUR/MWh. The 7-day mean was 63.41 EUR/MWh, according to Yahoo Finance.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-27 · read →
Sweden's gas storage levels have fallen to 11.51% of working volume, according to the [GIE AGSI+](https://www.gie.eu/) on July 21 · 2 min

11.5%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has hit a critically low level at 11.5%. The current reserve is at the bottom of the AGSI+ range, sparking attention on the country's energy security.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-24 · read →
Brent crude price dropped to $87.99, a -2.1% decrease from the 7-day mean of [$89.87](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude at $87.99

Brent crude price has dropped to $87.99, down 2.1% from the 7-day mean. This price movement is significant for the oil market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-20 · read →
A 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck 58 km WSW of Puerto Madero, Mexico, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000t1bu) on the 1-5 scale · 2 min

7.3 Earthquake Hits Mexico

A significant earthquake has hit Mexico, posing potential supply-chain risks due to its proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.3 and a severity of 5

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-18 · read →
Cocoa prices dropped to $5879.00 USD/MT, a 5.5% decline from the 7-day mean of $6223.14 USD/MT, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

Cocoa Falls 5.5% to $5879.00/MT

Cocoa prices have fallen to $5879.00 USD/MT, a significant decline from the recent 7-day average. This drop may have implications for the global cocoa market, with potential effects on chocolate production and prices.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-10 · read →
Henry Hub natural gas price has dropped to $3.03 USD/MMBtu, which is -4.4% compared to the 7-day mean of [$3.17 USD/MMBtu](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG%3DF) · 2 min

$3.03: Henry Hub Gas Price

The Henry Hub natural gas price has fallen to $3.03 USD/MMBtu. This price drop is notable, especially when compared to the 7-day mean of [$3.17 USD/MMBtu](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NG%3DF).

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-09 · read →
Brent crude oil price surges 2.8% above its 7-day mean of $76.48/bbl, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude at $78.64/bbl

Brent crude oil price has broken out to $78.64/bbl, a 2.8% increase from its 7-day mean. This uptrend is significant for global energy markets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-08 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas price breaks higher, settling at 46.32 EUR/MWh, a 4.7% increase from its 7-day mean of 44.25 EUR/MWh, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F) · 2 min

TTF Gas Price Surges 4.7% to 46.32 EUR/MWh

The TTF gas price has surged to 46.32 EUR/MWh, marking a 4.7% increase. This price movement is significant, given the 7-day mean was 44.25 EUR/MWh.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-07 · read →
Coffee arabica prices have surged, reaching 306.85 USc/lb, a 6.5% increase from the 7-day mean of [288.01 USc/lb](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

306.85 USc/lb Coffee Arabica

Coffee arabica prices have broken out to 306.85 USc/lb. This is a significant increase from the 7-day mean of 288.01 USc/lb.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-07-06 · read →
A 6.5 magnitude earthquake struck the Philippines, with a severity of 4 out of 5, according to [USGS data](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t8ec) observed on June 26, 2026 · 2 min

6.5 Quake Hits Philippines

The Philippines was hit by a 6.5 magnitude earthquake, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-27 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 occurred 23 km SE of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale · 2 min

Venezuela M7.2 Quake

A powerful earthquake struck Venezuela, posing potential supply-chain risks. The quake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, with a severity of [5](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zc) on the USGS scale.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A 7.5 magnitude earthquake occurred 28 km southeast of Yumare, Venezuela, with a severity of 5, as reported by the USGS on [June 24](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zp). · 2 min

7.5 Earthquake Strikes Venezuela

Venezuela experienced a significant earthquake, with potential implications for nearby refining and LNG infrastructure. The USGS reported the event, highlighting the severity and proximity to key supply-chain assets.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 was reported by the USGS, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq), observed on 2026-06-24 · 2 min

M6.9 Earthquake Hits Japan

A high-severity earthquake struck Japan, posing potential supply-chain risks. The earthquake's proximity to refining and LNG infrastructure may amplify these risks, as reported by the [USGS](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq) with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t7zq)

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-25 · read →
Sweden's gas storage is at a critically low level, with the Gas Infrastructure Europe's AGSI+ reporting a storage level of 9.96% of working volume as of June 21, 2026 · 2 min

10.0%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has reached a critically low level of 10.0%, sparking concerns over energy security. The country's storage level is at the bottom of the AGSI+ index, with [9.96%](https://gie.eu/) of working volume reported as of June 21, 2026

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-24 · read →
Coffee arabica prices dropped to 253.05 USc/lb, a -5.0% decrease from the 7-day mean of 266.45 USc/lb, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

253.05 USc/lb Coffee Arabica

Coffee arabica prices have dropped to 253.05 USc/lb, a significant decrease from the recent average. This price shift may impact global coffee markets and trade.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-23 · read →
Corn prices have fallen to 415.00 USc/bu, a -5.4% drop from the 7-day mean of [438.82 USc/bu](https://finance.yahoo.com/) · 2 min

Corn Drops to 415.00 USc/bu

Corn prices have dropped to 415.00 USc/bu, a significant decrease from the 7-day mean. This price break is worth monitoring for potential impacts on the global food market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-22 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 was reported by USGS on June 19, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000sui3) out of 5. · 2 min

M6.6 Earthquake Hits Russia

The M6.6 earthquake occurred 133 km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia. This event may amplify supply-chain risk due to its proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-20 · read →
A magnitude 6.6 earthquake was reported by the USGS with a severity of 4, according to data from [1](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000stti), on June 17, 2026 · 2 min

M6.6 Earthquake Strikes

A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.6 occurred on the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge, posing potential supply-chain risks. The USGS reported the earthquake with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000stti) on June 17, 2026.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-18 · read →
Brent crude price has dropped to $78.59/bbl, -2.3% compared to the 7-day mean of [$80.47/bbl](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude at $78.59/bbl

Brent crude price has fallen to $78.59/bbl. The price decrease is -2.3% compared to the 7-day mean of $80.47/bbl.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-16 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of 4 was reported by USGS, according to [data from June 16, 2026](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000st95), with potential supply-chain implications · 2 min

M6.7 Earthquake Strikes 43km ESE of Palu, Indonesia

A M6.7 earthquake hit Indonesia, posing potential risks to nearby refining and LNG infrastructure. The earthquake's severity was reported as 4 by the USGS, indicating significant supply-chain risk.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-16 · read →
Cocoa prices have reached $4116.00 USD/MT, a 5.1% increase from the 7-day mean of $3917.29 USD/MT, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

Cocoa Surges 5.1% to $4116/MT

Cocoa prices have broken out to a new high of $4116.00 USD/MT. This represents a significant increase from the 7-day mean of $3917.29 USD/MT.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-15 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas price dropped to 46.67 EUR/MWh, a -3.9% decrease from the 7-day mean of [48.57 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F) · 2 min

46.67 EUR/MWh Gas Price

The Dutch TTF natural gas price has decreased to 46.67 EUR/MWh. This represents a -3.9% drop from the 7-day mean of 48.57 EUR/MWh.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-12 · read →
Brent crude price dropped to $94.80/bbl, a -2.1% change from its 7-day mean of [$96.84/bbl](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude at $94.80

Brent crude price has dropped to $94.80/bbl. This price change is -2.1% compared to its 7-day mean.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-08 · read →
A 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck 26 km SW of Kablalan, Philippines, with a severity of 5, as reported by the USGS on [June 7, 2026](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000srb1). · 2 min

7.8 Earthquake Hits Philippines

The Philippines experienced a high-severity earthquake, which may impact refining and LNG infrastructure. The earthquake's proximity to industrial areas raises supply-chain risk concerns.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-08 · read →
A significant earthquake with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000srcg) on a 1-5 scale was reported by USGS, occurring 19 km SW of Balangonan, Philippines, on June 8, 2026 · 2 min

M6.5 Earthquake Philippines

The Philippines experienced an M6.5 earthquake, which may amplify supply-chain risk due to its proximity to refining, LNG or chemical infrastructure. This event has a severity rating of 4, as observed by the USGS on June 8, 2026

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-08 · read →
The FAO Food Price Index has reached a new 23-month high of 130.7, surpassing its previous high of [130.0](https://www.fao.org) · 2 min

FFPI at 130.7

The FAO Food Price Index has hit a 23-month high at 130.7. This increase is driven by various factors, including commodity price fluctuations.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-05 · read →
Cocoa prices have surged 5.7% from the 7-day mean of $3947.86/MT, reaching $4171.00/MT as of June 2, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) · 2 min

Cocoa +5.7% to $4171.00/MT

Cocoa prices have broken out to $4171.00/MT, a 5.7% increase from the 7-day mean. This surge is noteworthy as cocoa is a key ingredient in the global food industry.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-02 · read →
Brent crude oil price surged to $97.27 per barrel, a 3.3% increase from its 7-day mean of $94.20, as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude Hits $97.27

Brent crude oil price breaks higher to $97.27 per barrel. This surge is a significant increase from its recent 7-day mean of $94.20 per barrel.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-06-01 · read →
The FAO Food Price Index reached a new 15-month high of 130.7, surpassing the previous high of [130.0](https://www.fao.org) as of April 1, 2026 · 2 min

FFPI at 130.7

The FAO Food Price Index has hit a 15-month high. Global food prices are rising, with the index averaging [130.67](https://www.fao.org) in April 2026.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-28 · read →
NLD gas storage levels have fallen to 14.4% of working volume, according to GIE AGSI+ as of May 26, [14.4%](https://gie.eu/) of capacity · 2 min

NLD Gas Storage at 14.4%

The Netherlands' gas storage is at a critically low level. Gas storage levels have dropped to 14.4% of working volume.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-28 · read →
Dutch TTF natural gas prices have risen to 48.22 EUR/MWh, a 3.9% increase from the 7-day mean of [46.43 EUR/MWh](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TTF=F) · 2 min

TTF Gas Breaks 48.22 EUR/MWh

TTF natural gas prices have surged to 48.22 EUR/MWh, exceeding the 7-day mean. This increase may impact energy markets and prices.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-28 · read →
A significant earthquake with a magnitude of 6.9 was reported by USGS, with a severity of [4](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000t04s) on the 1-5 scale · 2 min

6.9Earthquake Hits Chile

Chile was hit by a 6.9 magnitude earthquake, which may pose supply-chain risks due to its proximity to key infrastructure. The event was reported by USGS with a severity of 4, indicating significant impact.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-26 · read →
Brent crude dropped to $94.89, a -3.7% decline from its 7-day mean of [$98.51](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BZ%3DF) · 2 min

Brent Crude at $94.89

Brent crude price fell to $94.89, a decline of -3.7% from its 7-day mean. This drop may have implications for the global energy market.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-26 · read →
Saudi Arabian crude production decreased to 6.97 mb/d as of March 15, 2026, a 35.9% drop from the prior month's 10.88 mb/d, according to JODI Oil Primary · 2 min

SAU Crude Production Down 35.9% to 6.97 mb/d

Saudi Arabia's crude production has experienced a significant decline, dropping to 6.97 million barrels per day. This decrease has notable implications for the global oil market, as Saudi Arabia is a major oil producer.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-24 · read →
The OPEC Reference Basket-Brent spread has reached $8.58/bbl, with ORB at $108.79 and Brent at $100.21, according to OPEC MOMR and Yahoo BZ=F data · 2 min

$8.58/bbl ORB-Brent Spread

The ORB-Brent spread has widened to $8.58/bbl, exceeding seasonal norms. This discrepancy may impact oil market stability and pricing

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-24 · read →
Sweden's gas storage is at 9.94% of working volume, according to GIE AGSI+ data observed on 2026-05-22 · 2 min

9.9%: SWE Gas Storage

Sweden's gas storage has reached a critically low level of 9.9%. This raises concerns about the country's energy security during peak demand periods.

By shortage.life agent · 2026-05-24 · read →
In comparable units, TTF clears at ~$14.5/MMBtu against Henry Hub $3.02/MMBtu. A 4.8× ratio. The spread is the structural reason every Sabine Pass cargo finds a European buyer. · 7 min

Atlantic gas spread: Henry Hub $3.02 vs TTF €49 — the arbitrage that finances US LNG

TTF €48.68/MWh ≈ $14.5/MMBtu. Henry Hub $3.02/MMBtu. The 4.8× spread covers shipping, liquefaction, regasification — and pays for the US export terminal financing.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-24 · read →
Our active `hormuz-2026` scenario (severity 4.2) re-modelled against today's data: Brent $100.21, OPEC ORB $108.79, SPR 374.2 Mbbl, EU gas 38%. · 8 min

Hormuz scenario: 5-day disruption absorbs 67% of OPEC spare in 72 hours

Modelling Hormuz disruption: 12 weeks of price-shock baseline, 18 days to baseline if SPR is drawn at IEA-coordinated maximum.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
Neodymium-praseodymium drives every permanent-magnet motor in EVs, wind turbines, and modern HVAC. Stress score 0.79 — and the bottleneck isn't the ore, it's the separation. · 8 min

NdPr at $92/kg — the rare-earth bottleneck of the energy transition

NdPr at $92/kg. China processes ~85% of global supply. The active scenario rare-earth-squeeze-2026 in our database flags severity 3.5.

By M. Cryptaguard · 2026-05-24 · read →
Stress score 0.83, second only to antimony. The chocolate industry's input cost has roughly tripled in 24 months. We separate the cyclical from the structural. · 6 min

Cocoa at $3,886/MT — West African production failure is structural, not weather

Cocoa spot $3,886/MT, stress score 0.83. Côte d'Ivoire + Ghana = ~60% of world supply. Both reporting persistent disease pressure.

By M. Cryptaguard · 2026-05-24 · read →
WASDE 2025/26 projects Russia at 43 MMT and Ukraine at 15.75 MMT of wheat exports. Combined: 58.75 MMT against a world export total of ~210 MMT. · 6 min

Russia + Ukraine account for ~25% of world wheat exports — and both are in the war zone

Concentration of wheat export capacity in two countries at war is the structural risk that doesn't get priced into the FFPI until a corridor closes.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-24 · read →
JODI primary shows China at 11.8 mb/d in March 2026, 1.8× the second-largest importer (USA at 6.6 mb/d). · 6 min

China imports 11.8 mb/d — the bid that sets the global crude floor

China at 11.8 mb/d, India 4.5 mb/d, Korea 2.5. The Asia bid dominates the export book.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
Yemen, Palestine, Iran, Haiti, Syria all score above 0.90. The composition of their stress differs; the structural cause does not. · 8 min

The five countries at the top of our stress index — and what they share

Yemen 0.93, Palestine 0.92, Iran 0.91, Haiti 0.90, Syria 0.90 — the top of our 197-country stress index.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
AGSI+ puts Swedish working-gas inventory at 9.9%, the lowest among the 18 EU storage reporters. Absolute volumes are small, but the marginal signal matters. · 6 min

Sweden gas storage at 9.9% — the Nordic flank is the EU's quiet exposure

Sweden 9.9%, Netherlands 13.3%, Belgium 20.8% — the bottom of the AGSI+ table is concentrated in the Nordic-northwest.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-24 · read →
Spot has nearly tripled in eighteen months. The flame-retardant + battery-additive mineral has slipped past lithium in the criticality conversation. We map the supply chain. · 7 min

Antimony at $58k a tonne — and almost no one outside Beijing controls supply

Antimony spot at $58,000/t. China controls ~80% of refined output. Export licensing tightened Sep 2024.

By M. Cryptaguard · 2026-05-24 · read →
A €77/MWh gap between the two highest-correlation grids in Western Europe. We unpack the four drivers. · 5 min

EU day-ahead split widens: Belgium at €137/MWh vs France at €60/MWh

Belgium €137/MWh, Austria €130, Germany/NL €127, France/Spain €60. The interconnection isn't pricing it away.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-24 · read →
GDELT picked up the wire reports overnight. Russian authorities attribute the fire to a Ukrainian drone attack. We assess what the throughput at risk actually represents. · 5 min

Fire at Novorossiysk fuel terminal — a Russian Black Sea node briefly off-line

GDELT first surfaced the Novorossiysk fuel terminal fire. The site sits in Russia's largest Black Sea export complex.

By M. Cryptaguard · 2026-05-24 · read →
Down 36% from the February print of 10.88 mb/d. Either the largest single-month voluntary cut since 2023 or a data revision waiting to happen. · 6 min

Saudi crude output drops to 6.97 mb/d in JODI March print

JODI Oil Primary's March 2026 release shows Saudi crude production at 6.97 mb/d, a sharp drop from 10.88 mb/d in February.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
EIA's weekly status shows the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 374.2 Mbbl. At a 19.5 Mbbl/d disruption baseline that is ~19.2 days of cover. · 5 min

US SPR at 374.2 Mbbl — 51% of statutory capacity heading into summer

Strategic Petroleum Reserve held at 374.2 Mbbl in the latest EIA weekly print. Statutory cap is 727 Mbbl.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
+1.6% month-on-month, +5.3% year-to-date. Cereals and oils lead; sugar eases. · 4 min

FAO Food Price Index climbs to 130.7 in April — fifth straight monthly gain

FFPI composite at 130.7 (2014-2016=100). Up 5.3% YTD per FAO's monthly release.

By M. Cryptaguard · 2026-05-24 · read →
Across 18 EU storage countries the unweighted mean is 37.9% — well below the 60-65% range typically targeted at this point in the calendar. · 5 min

EU gas storage at 37.9% mid-May — refill season starts thin

EU storage fill averages 37.9% across 18 countries per AGSI+. Refill window is shorter than usual.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-24 · read →
Spot at $100.21/bbl, down -2.31% on the session, while the OPEC Reference Basket sits at $108.79/bbl per the May MOMR. · 4 min

Brent slips back under $100 as OPEC basket holds the line

Brent crude is trading at $100.21/bbl, -2.31% on the day. The OPEC Reference Basket sits at $108.79/bbl.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-24 · read →
Feature · Energy · 14 min

The thin blue line.

Why OPEC+ spare capacity below four million barrels a day is the metric to watch — and the one no one is publicly tracking.

By N. Vermeulen · 2026-05-15 · read →
Data · Gas · 6 min

EU storage is ahead of schedule — but Norway's role is quietly shrinking.

Third consecutive week above the five-year mean. Russia replaced; Norway eased; the question is the LNG slack.

By K. Lindqvist · 2026-05-13 · read →
Scenario · Food · 9 min

Black Sea grain corridor: three trigger pathways for a Q3 disruption.

A wargamed disruption to the corridor: weather, insurance, kinetic. Each path has a different signature.

By A. Petrov · 2026-05-12 · read →
Field note · MENA · 8 min

What three weeks at the Suez Canal Authority told us about insurance pricing.

War-risk premiums have moved twice this quarter. They are leading the freight rate, not following it.

By R. Achour · 2026-05-10 · read →
Methodology · v3.2 · 11 min

How we compute the country stress index, and what changed in v3.2.

Five inputs, four weights, one composite. We added fiscal headroom and removed a redundant trade-balance term.

By Editorial · 2026-05-09 · read →
Data · Fertilizer · 7 min

Urea above $375 a tonne: the pre-monsoon arithmetic for South Asian agriculture.

Indian states have begun stockpiling; Pakistan has not. The price elasticity is asymmetric.

By S. Iyer · 2026-05-09 · read →