The export book
USDA WASDE May 2026 (#671) projection for 2025/26 wheat exports, top exporters (MMT):
| Country | MMT | World share | |---|---|---| | Russia | 43.00 | 20.4% | | EU-27 | 27.92 | 13.3% | | Canada | 29.35 | 14.0% | | Australia | 23.65 | 11.3% | | Ukraine | 15.75 | 7.5% | | Argentina | 13.31 | 6.3% | | USA | (n/a in this dataset row, ~22 MMT) | ~10.5% |
Russia + Ukraine combined: ~28% of world wheat exports, both routed through the Black Sea logistics corridor.
Why this is the file in the back of the drawer
Concentration risk in food doesn't follow the same playbook as oil. The cereal trade has no SPR equivalent, no OPEC-style coordination, and a planting cycle that locks in capacity 6-9 months ahead of harvest.
The May 2024 black-sea grain corridor partial halt led to FFPI spiking +12% in the following two months — and that was a partial disruption with discount-routed shipping continuing via the western Black Sea. A full corridor halt is in the active scenarios on our scenarios page under black-sea-halt-2026 (severity 4.0).
Two specific tells
1. War-risk premium on Odesa lifters. Insurance for Black Sea grain cargoes is currently sitting around 1.2-1.5% of cargo value, up from 0.4% in early 2025. If it crosses 2.5%, marginal lifters refuse the route.
2. Russian export tax adjustments. Moscow uses the export tax dial to manage domestic prices. A sudden upward adjustment (above 15%) typically signals tight domestic supply expectations and reduces volume available for export.
What the buyers do
The structural buyers — Egypt's GASC, Indonesian and Bangladeshi mills, the African milling consortia — have been actively diversifying sourcing toward Australia, Argentina and EU origins. But Russian wheat carries a $30-40/tonne discount that is hard to walk away from without political cover.
What we're watching
- GASC tender results (Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer, ~15 MMT/yr — its sourcing mix is the leading indicator)
- Black Sea insurance premiums (Lloyd's of London quotes)
- Russian Ministry of Agriculture monthly export tax update
Sources: USDA WASDE May 2026 (#671); shortage.life measurements table (commodity=wheat, metric=export, source=USDA-WASDE).