shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-14 20:59:58 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario list --all
> 3 scenarios tracked
> 1 elevated · 1 watch
> last_review 2026-05-09

// readout · live

BRENT     $88.52/b ●
TTF       €61.42/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.7%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%BRENT$88.52● 0.0%TTF€61.42▲0.52%HH$2.73▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS60.7%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu▲0.69%
~/scenarios·tracked: 3·methodology: v3.2license: CC-BY-4.0

PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS

Wargamed disruptions to energy, food and supply-chain systems — each carrying an internal probability estimate, a severity rating and a map of cascading exposure across commodities and countries.

[ 01 ]  $_SCENARIOS · active register

// HORMUZ-2026 · ELEVATED

Persian Gulf 5-day tanker disruption.

prob 0.34
severity 4.2 / 5 · revision 2026-04-288 countries affected · oil + wheat + insurance + lithium
open scenario →
// SANCTIONS-Q3 · WATCH

Q3 secondary sanctions on Iranian petrochem.

prob 0.58
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-092 countries primary · 12 cascade exposure
open scenario →
// WHEAT-2026 · MONITORING

Russia / Kazakhstan wheat export quota tightening.

prob 0.22
severity 3.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0211 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration
open scenario →
// MALACCA-2026 · WATCH

Strait of Malacca chokepoint disruption.

prob 0.18
severity 4.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-109 East Asian importers affected · crude + LNG + container freight
open scenario →
// EU-COLDSNAP-2026 · WATCH

European late-winter cold snap drains gas storage.

prob 0.41
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-12EU-wide exposure · gas storage + LNG procurement cost
open scenario →
// MONSOON-2026 · WATCH

Indian monsoon failure compresses the cereal balance.

prob 0.27
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09South Asia + African importers · rice + buffer-stock drawdown
open scenario →
// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026 · ELEVATED

Black Sea grain corridor full halt.

prob 0.31
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-13MENA + N Africa importers · wheat + corn + freight
open scenario →
// GULF-REFINERY-2026 · WATCH

Gulf refinery and export-terminal outage.

prob 0.23
severity 3.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-11Gulf exporters + product importers · crude loadings + refined product
open scenario →
// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026 · ELEVATED

Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.

prob 0.62
severity 4.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-14Sudan + Sahel · acute food insecurity + aid logistics collapse
open scenario →
// SNAPBACK-2026 · WATCH

Full sanctions snapback on Iranian crude.

prob 0.36
severity 3.9 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08Iran primary · China + Gulf cascade · crude + freight
open scenario →
// PAKISTAN-FX-2026 · WATCH

Pakistan foreign-exchange crisis halts fuel imports.

prob 0.33
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-07Pakistan · fuel + LNG + fertilizer import financing
open scenario →
// GULF-HURRICANE-2026 · MONITORING

US Gulf Coast hurricane disrupts refining and LNG export.

prob 0.44
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06US refining + LNG · European + Asian LNG buyers
open scenario →
// RAREEARTH-2026 · WATCH

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

prob 0.38
severity 3.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-05US + allied manufacturers · rare earths + magnets + battery materials
open scenario →
// IRAQ-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Iraqi power-grid collapse on lost Iranian supply.

prob 0.29
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-04Iraq · power grid + crude export operations
open scenario →
// IBERIA-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Iberian peninsula grid instability under summer peak demand.

prob 0.30
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-12Iberian peninsula · power grid + LNG regasification + ports
open scenario →
// FR-NUCLEAR-2026 · MONITORING

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

prob 0.24
severity 3.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10France + interconnected neighbours · power balance + gas demand
open scenario →
// EU-GAS-2026 · ELEVATED

European winter gas-supply squeeze.

prob 0.46
severity 4.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-1045 European markets · gas + power + storage refill
open scenario →
// EU-INDUSTRY-2026 · WATCH

Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.

prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0814 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer
open scenario →
// BALKANS-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Cascading blackouts across the Western Balkans.

prob 0.41
severity 3.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-066 Western Balkan grids · electricity + industry
open scenario →
// UA-GRID-2026 · ELEVATED

Ukrainian grid collapse under sustained strikes.

prob 0.55
severity 4.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-11Ukraine + Moldova · power + grain logistics
open scenario →
// NORTHSEA-2026 · MONITORING

North Sea supply cliff accelerates UK and Norwegian export decline.

prob 0.33
severity 2.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-044 North Sea producers · oil + gas exports
open scenario →
// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026 · WATCH

Nordic hydro drought tightens the regional power market.

prob 0.37
severity 2.9 / 5 · revision 2026-05-074 Nordic markets · hydro power + exports
open scenario →
// PANAMA-2026 · WATCH

Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.

prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-098 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel
open scenario →
// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026 · ELEVATED

Caribbean import-fuel crisis.

prob 0.48
severity 3.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-1014 Caribbean economies · diesel + jet fuel + power
open scenario →
// CUBA-GRID-2026 · ELEVATED

Cuban national grid collapse.

prob 0.57
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08Cuba + Haiti · power + food cold chain
open scenario →
// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026 · WATCH

Andean hydro drought tightens regional power.

prob 0.40
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-065 Andean grids · hydro power + rationing
open scenario →
// US-GULF-2026 · WATCH

US Gulf Coast refining strain.

prob 0.36
severity 2.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-04United States + Mexico · refined products
open scenario →
// EASTASIA-LNG-2026 · WATCH

East Asian LNG-supply squeeze.

prob 0.45
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-095 East Asian economies · LNG + power
open scenario →
// CENTRALASIA-2026 · WATCH

Central Asian winter power and gas shortfall.

prob 0.43
severity 3.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-076 Central Asian economies · gas + power
open scenario →
// LEVANT-2026 · ELEVATED

Levant energy-system collapse.

prob 0.54
severity 4.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-115 Levant economies · power + fuel
open scenario →
// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026 · ELEVATED

South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.

prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-108 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food
open scenario →
// SEASIA-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Southeast Asian grid strain.

prob 0.42
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0611 Southeast Asian economies · power + manufacturing
open scenario →
// CAUCASUS-2026 · MONITORING

South Caucasus energy-supply risk.

prob 0.31
severity 2.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-043 South Caucasus economies · transit + supply
open scenario →
// GULF-EXPORT-2026 · WATCH

Gulf hydrocarbon export disruption.

prob 0.38
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0810 Gulf and Red Sea economies · oil + LNG exports
open scenario →
// SAF-GRID-2026 · ELEVATED

Southern African grid crisis.

prob 0.53
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-1010 Southern African economies · power + mining
open scenario →
// SAHEL-2026 · ELEVATED

Sahel instability disrupts fuel and food supply.

prob 0.56
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-094 Sahel economies · fuel + food + transit
open scenario →
// WAFRICA-POWER-2026 · WATCH

West African power deficit.

prob 0.47
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0713 West African economies · power + industry
open scenario →
// EAFRICA-FX-2026 · WATCH

East African foreign-exchange and fuel squeeze.

prob 0.46
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0610 East African economies · fuel + FX + food
open scenario →
// MAGHREB-2026 · MONITORING

Maghreb energy-transition strain.

prob 0.30
severity 2.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-044 Maghreb economies · gas + renewables
open scenario →
// CAFRICA-OIL-2026 · MONITORING

Central African oil-output decline.

prob 0.34
severity 2.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-057 Central African economies · oil revenue
open scenario →
// ISLANDS-2026 · WATCH

African island-states fuel crisis.

prob 0.44
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-086 African island economies · diesel + power
open scenario →
// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026 · ELEVATED

Pacific island fuel crisis.

prob 0.49
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-0912 Pacific island economies · diesel + power
open scenario →
// ANZ-ENERGY-2026 · MONITORING

Australia and New Zealand energy-market strain.

prob 0.30
severity 2.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-05Australia + New Zealand · gas + hydro power
open scenario →
// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026 · WATCH

Severe Pacific cyclone season disruption.

prob 0.40
severity 3.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-078 Pacific economies · infrastructure + supply lines
open scenario →
// ALPINE-SWE-2026 ·

Alpine snowpack builds normally, drains early

prob 0.62
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-08-025 countries · alpine and pyrenean catchments · irrigation and hydropower
open scenario →
// EU-FOREST-2060 ·

Mediterranean forest conversion crosses the regeneration threshold

prob 0.45
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-08-026 countries · 29 Mha mediterranean canopy · timber, carbon, slope stability
open scenario →
// RIPARIAN-2026 ·

Riparian decoupling removes the landscape's natural firebreaks

prob 0.50
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-08-025 countries · unmeasured mechanism · fire connectivity and slope stability
open scenario →