$ shortage scenario get wheat-2026 > status: 0.22 MONITORING > severity 3.5 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-02
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
11 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration
Russia and Kazakhstan tighten wheat export quotas ahead of an uncertain harvest.
11 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration
Import-dependent MENA and North African states face a sharp rise in the landed cost of wheat; strategic-stock drawdowns accelerate.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.