DEMO DATA · NOT FOR CITATION
shortage.life · session_log · 2026-05-17 14:32 UTCPID 47023 · ttyS0 · uptime 312d

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get wheat-2026
> status: 0.22 MONITORING
> severity 3.5 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-02

// readout · live

BRENT     $84.27 ▲
TTF       €31.50 ▼
OPEC_SP   3.8 mb/d ●
SPR_US    372.4 Mb
FAO_FFPI  121.4 ▲
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/tCU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/tCU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%
~/scenarios/wheat-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/wheat-2026
// WHEAT-2026 · MONITORING

Russia / Kazakhstan wheat export quota tightening.

11 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration

MONITORINGSTATUSMONITORING
MONITORINGPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.22
MONITORINGSEVERITY3.5/ 5
MONITORINGLAST REVIEW2026-05-02
probability 0.22
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario WHEAT-2026·last revision 2026-05-02
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-02

Russia / Kazakhstan wheat export quota tightening.

// The hypothesis

Russia and Kazakhstan tighten wheat export quotas ahead of an uncertain harvest.

11 importer countries affected · MENA & N Africa concentration

// Modelled impact

Import-dependent MENA and North African states face a sharp rise in the landed cost of wheat; strategic-stock drawdowns accelerate.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

WHT.SRWWheat SRW · spot $6.42/bu

[ 02 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Iran / IRNregion MENA · stress 0.91Egypt / EGYregion MENA · stress 0.69

[ 03 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58