Gulf hydrocarbon export disruption.
prob 0.38
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 10 Gulf and Red Sea economies · oil + LNG exports$ shortage country get EGY > stress_index: 0.69 WATCH > 4 events · 3 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $70.5/b ▲ TTF €43.7/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Egypt is the world's largest wheat importer, with bread subsidies central to social stability for over 100 million people. Once a gas exporter, falling field output and rising demand have turned it into a net LNG importer. Foreign-exchange pressure and a heavily import-dependent food system leave it acutely exposed to Black Sea grain and global energy shocks.
Egypt is almost entirely dependent on the Nile and acutely exposed to any change in upstream flows from the GERD.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveGASC and the strategic reserve hold several months of wheat; as the world's largest wheat importer, Egypt is highly exposed to Black Sea supply. | ~3.5–4 Mt | 120days | WATCH |
| Crude and products · commercial inventoriesProduct cover is limited and constrained by foreign-exchange scarcity restricting cargo purchases. | moderate | 20days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · domestic supply and LNGDeclining field output has turned Egypt into a net LNG importer, with summer cooling demand met by contracted cargoes. | tight | 15days | WATCH |
| Rice · strategic reserveDomestic paddy output supports rice cover, though water scarcity constrains the planted area. | moderate | 90days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/EGY | jq '.stress' > 0.69