shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 16:50:27 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get black-sea-halt-2026
> status: 0.31 ELEVATED
> severity 4.0 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-13

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.37/b ▼
TTF       €63.92/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    298.7 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%
~/scenarios/black-sea-halt-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/black-sea-halt-2026
// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026 · ELEVATED

Black Sea grain corridor full halt.

MENA + N Africa importers · wheat + corn + freight

ELEVATEDSTATUSELEVATED
ELEVATEDPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.31
ELEVATEDSEVERITY4.0/ 5
ELEVATEDLAST REVIEW2026-05-13
probability 0.31
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario BLACKSEA-HALT-2026·last revision 2026-05-13
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-13

Black Sea grain corridor full halt.

// The hypothesis

A kinetic or insurance-driven escalation closes the Black Sea grain corridor to commercial wheat and corn shipments for several weeks.

MENA + N Africa importers · wheat + corn + freight

// Modelled impact

Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are curtailed at source; Egypt and other MENA importers accelerate strategic-stock drawdowns as landed wheat costs climb.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

WHT.SRWWheat SRW · spot $6.833/bu

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Russia / RUSregion Eurasia · stress 0.55Egypt / EGYregion MENA · stress 0.69

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50