shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 12:50:25 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get france-nuclear-shortfall-2026
> status: 0.24 MONITORING
> severity 3.1 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-10

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.14/b ▲
TTF       €62.58/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.14▲0.12%TTF€62.58▲0.37%HH$2.71▼0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.91/bu▲0.29%BRENT$91.14▲0.12%TTF€62.58▲0.37%HH$2.71▼0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.91/bu▲0.29%
~/scenarios/france-nuclear-shortfall-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/france-nuclear-shortfall-2026
// FR-NUCLEAR-2026 · MONITORING

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

France + interconnected neighbours · power balance + gas demand

MONITORINGSTATUSMONITORING
MONITORINGPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.24
MONITORINGSEVERITY3.1/ 5
MONITORINGLAST REVIEW2026-05-10
probability 0.24
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario FR-NUCLEAR-2026·last revision 2026-05-10
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-10

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

// The hypothesis

A return of corrosion-related outages or extended maintenance reduces EDF nuclear fleet availability through a cold European winter.

France + interconnected neighbours · power balance + gas demand

// Modelled impact

France draws on gas-fired generation and imports rather than exporting power, tightening the regional electricity balance and lifting wholesale prices for Belgium and other interconnected neighbours.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

GAS.TTFEU Gas TTF · spot $2.710/MMBtu

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

France / FRAregion Europe · stress 0.38Belgium / BELregion Europe · stress 0.46

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50