FR-NUCLEAR-2026 — French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

$_TICKER

BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/t—CU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/t—CU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%

READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario FR-NUCLEAR-2026·last revision 2026-05-10

Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-10

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

// The hypothesis

A return of corrosion-related outages or extended maintenance reduces EDF nuclear fleet availability through a cold European winter.

France + interconnected neighbours · power balance + gas demand

// Modelled impact

France draws on gas-fired generation and imports rather than exporting power, tightening the regional electricity balance and lifting wholesale prices for Belgium and other interconnected neighbours.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model

Disruption duration5d

Affected supply share35%

Recovery period14wk

SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d

CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d

EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%

RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

// node

// $_ exec

// readout · live

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

French winter nuclear availability shortfall.

// The hypothesis

// Modelled impact

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

[ 02 ] $_COMMODITIES · affected

[ 03 ] $_COUNTRIES · exposure

[ 04 ] $_SCENARIOS · related register