$ shortage scenario get rare-earth-squeeze-2026 > status: 0.38 WATCH > severity 3.5 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-05
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
US + allied manufacturers · rare earths + magnets + battery materials
China tightens export licensing on heavy rare earths and finished magnets in response to renewed trade tension.
US + allied manufacturers · rare earths + magnets + battery materials
Defence, EV and electronics manufacturers in the US and allied economies face component shortages and price spikes; alternative processing capacity takes years to scale.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.