RAREEARTH-2026 — Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

$_TICKER

BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%

READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario RAREEARTH-2026·last revision 2026-05-05

Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-05

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

// The hypothesis

China tightens export licensing on heavy rare earths and finished magnets in response to renewed trade tension.

US + allied manufacturers · rare earths + magnets + battery materials

// Modelled impact

Defence, EV and electronics manufacturers in the US and allied economies face component shortages and price spikes; alternative processing capacity takes years to scale.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model

Disruption duration5d

Affected supply share35%

Recovery period14wk

SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d

CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d

EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%

RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

// node

// $_ exec

// readout · live

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

// The hypothesis

// Modelled impact

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

[ 02 ] $_COMMODITIES · affected

[ 03 ] $_COUNTRIES · exposure

[ 04 ] $_SCENARIOS · related register