RAREEARTH-2026 — Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

$_TICKER

BRENT$105.35▼3.95%TTF€81.97▲3.80%HH$2.82▼0.70%SPR_US286.6 Mb14.7dEU_GAS69.9%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI133.3▲1.9%WHT$7.34/bu▼0.98%BRENT$105.35▼3.95%TTF€81.97▲3.80%HH$2.82▼0.70%SPR_US286.6 Mb14.7dEU_GAS69.9%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI133.3▲1.9%WHT$7.34/bu▼0.98%

READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario RAREEARTH-2026·last revision 2026-05-05

Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-05

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

// The hypothesis

China tightens export licensing on heavy rare earths and finished magnets in response to renewed trade tension.

US + allied manufacturers · rare earths + magnets + battery materials

// Modelled impact

Defence, EV and electronics manufacturers in the US and allied economies face component shortages and price spikes; alternative processing capacity takes years to scale.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model

Disruption duration5d

Affected supply share35%

Recovery period14wk

SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d

CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d

EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%

RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

// node

// $_ exec

// readout · live

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

Critical-mineral export squeeze on rare earths.

// The hypothesis

// Modelled impact

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

[ 02 ] $_COMMODITIES · affected

[ 03 ] $_COUNTRIES · exposure

[ 04 ] $_SCENARIOS · related register