SAHEL-FAMINE-2026 — Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.

$_TICKER

BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/t—CU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%BRENT$84.27▲0.50%WTI$80.15▲0.39%TTF€31.50▼3.67%NBP72.4p▼1.50%HH$2.84▲1.43%SPR_US372.4 Mb18.7dEU_GAS78.3%▲0.4ppOPEC_SPARE3.8 mb/d▼0.3FAO_FFPI121.4▲0.8WHT.SRW$6.42/bu▲1.84%RIC.THAI$612/t▲0.32%UREA$378/t▲2.71%LITH$13,820/t▼0.84%COBL$31,400/t—CU$9,820/t▲0.65%NI$17,420/t▼1.10%

READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario SAHEL-FAMINE-2026·last revision 2026-05-14

Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-14

Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.

// The hypothesis

Continued conflict, displacement and blocked humanitarian access push acute food insecurity in Sudan and the wider Sahel deeper into famine.

Sudan + Sahel · acute food insecurity + aid logistics collapse

// Modelled impact

Famine conditions widen across multiple regions; cereal and aid logistics break down further and the acute food-insecure population rises well beyond current estimates.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model

Disruption duration5d

Affected supply share35%

Recovery period14wk

SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d

CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d

EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%

RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

// node

// $_ exec

// readout · live

Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.

Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.

// The hypothesis

// Modelled impact

[ 01 ] $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

[ 02 ] $_COMMODITIES · affected

[ 03 ] $_COUNTRIES · exposure

[ 04 ] $_SCENARIOS · related register