$ shortage scenario get iberia-grid-fragility-2026 > status: 0.30 WATCH > severity 3.4 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-12
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
Iberian peninsula · power grid + LNG regasification + ports
Weak electricity interconnection with France leaves the Spanish and Portuguese grid exposed to a repeat of the April 2025 blackout when summer cooling demand and high renewable share strain system stability.
Iberian peninsula · power grid + LNG regasification + ports
A renewed wide-area outage would halt refineries, LNG regasification, ports and rail across the peninsula; the limited cross-border link constrains import support and slows restoration.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.