$ shortage scenario get malacca-2026 > status: 0.18 WATCH > severity 4.4 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-10
BRENT $91.08/b ▼ TTF €63.92/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 298.7 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.3 ▼
9 East Asian importers affected · crude + LNG + container freight
A collision, security incident or contested closure constricts tanker and container transit through the Strait of Malacca for an extended period.
9 East Asian importers affected · crude + LNG + container freight
China and other East Asian importers, which route most seaborne crude and LNG through the strait, face rerouting via the longer Lombok and Sunda passages, adding days of voyage time and lifting freight and insurance costs.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.