East Asian LNG-supply squeeze.
prob 0.45
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 5 East Asian economies · LNG + power$ shortage country get CHN > stress_index: 0.34 STABLE > 5 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $70.5/b ▲ TTF €43.7/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
China is the world's largest energy importer, buying roughly three-quarters of the crude it consumes and a growing share of its natural gas as LNG and pipeline supply. Aggressive stockpiling has built an estimated 90-plus days of strategic and commercial oil cover. Grain self-sufficiency is high for staples but the country is the dominant global importer of soybeans and a heavy buyer of feed grains.
Northern China faces chronic water scarcity, while the Yangtze basin has seen severe drought years; reservoir and lake levels swing sharply with the monsoon.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · strategic and commercial (est.)Combined government and commercial crude estimated at 90-plus days of cover; reserve reporting is opaque, so figures are external estimates. | ~1,100 Mbbl | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · underground storageWorking gas capacity has expanded with rising LNG and pipeline imports but remains thin against winter peak demand. | ~15 Bcm | 13days | WATCH |
| Grain · state cereal reserveSinograin operates one of the world's largest state grain reserves of wheat, rice and corn for price stabilisation. | very large | 180days | STABLE |
| Soybeans · strategic reserveStockpiles built through front-loaded imports, mostly from Brazil, to buffer trade-tension risk for the dominant global soybean buyer. | substantial | 60days | WATCH |
| Pork · frozen state reserveGovernment frozen-pork reserve released and replenished to manage domestic meat-price volatility. | rotating | 30days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/CHN | jq '.stress' > 0.34