Persian Gulf 5-day tanker disruption.
prob 0.34 · severity 4.2 / 58 countries affected · oil + wheat + insurance + lithium
open scenario →$ shortage commodity get WHT.SRW > spot: $6.42/bu > stress_index: 0.81 CRITICAL > updated 14:30 UTC
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
Soft red winter wheat. Crossed the +1.5%/24h alert threshold on Black Sea corridor risk.
Soft red winter wheat. Crossed the +1.5%/24h alert threshold on Black Sea corridor risk. At the latest reading, Wheat SRW prints a spot of $6.42/bu — a move of ▲1.84% over the past twenty-four hours and ▲8.21% across the trailing thirty days.
The v3.2 stress index places WHT.SRW at 0.81 — a critical reading on a composite that blends price momentum, inventory cover, supplier concentration and geopolitical exposure. The metric is recomputed on every ingestion cycle, and the weekly delta is the line worth tracking rather than the absolute level.
For operators, the question is not the spot itself but the buffer behind it. A tightening reading on Wheat SRW compounds with any incident on a shared transit route or producer, and the cascade is rarely linear. The scenarios below carry WHT.SRW as an explicit input — each one is wargamed and reviewed against this commodity's exposure profile.