$ shortage scenario get pacific-cyclone-disruption-2026 > status: 0.40 WATCH > severity 3.1 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-07
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
8 Pacific economies · infrastructure + supply lines
An intense cyclone season damages power and port infrastructure across the island Pacific.
8 Pacific economies · infrastructure + supply lines
Repeated rebuilding strains small economies already squeezed by fuel-import costs, disrupting tourism and supply lines.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.