shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 15:50:29 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get iraq-grid-collapse-2026
> status: 0.29 WATCH
> severity 3.4 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-04

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.84/b ▲
TTF       €63.73/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.84▲1.11%TTF€63.73▲1.61%HH$2.74▲0.74%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.88/bu▲0.07%BRENT$91.84▲1.11%TTF€63.73▲1.61%HH$2.74▲0.74%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.88/bu▲0.07%
~/scenarios/iraq-grid-collapse-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/iraq-grid-collapse-2026
// IRAQ-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Iraqi power-grid collapse on lost Iranian supply.

Iraq · power grid + crude export operations

WATCHSTATUSWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.29
WATCHSEVERITY3.4/ 5
WATCHLAST REVIEW2026-05-04
probability 0.29
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario IRAQ-GRID-2026·last revision 2026-05-04
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-04

Iraqi power-grid collapse on lost Iranian supply.

// The hypothesis

A sustained cut to Iranian gas and electricity imports, compounded by summer peak demand, triggers cascading failures across Iraq's power grid.

Iraq · power grid + crude export operations

// Modelled impact

Prolonged blackouts hit residential and industrial users during extreme heat; emergency generation strains the budget and crude export operations face power-supply risk.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

GAS.TTFEU Gas TTF · spot $2.750/MMBtuOIL.BRTBrent Crude · spot $91.37/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Iraq / IRQregion MENA · stress 0.61Iran / IRNregion MENA · stress 0.91

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50