Q3 secondary sanctions on Iranian petrochem.
prob 0.58
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 2 countries primary · 12 cascade exposure$ shortage country get IRN > stress_index: 0.91 CRITICAL > 14 events · 6 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $88.52/b ● TTF €61.42/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 304.8 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.3 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Iran holds the world's second-largest gas reserves and major oil reserves, but sanctions cap its crude exports and force sales at deep discounts, mostly to China via a shadow fleet. Currency collapse and subsidy strain have eroded purchasing power. Roughly a quarter of wheat consumption is imported, and drought repeatedly pressures domestic harvests.
Iran faces a deepening water crisis, with Lake Urmia shrunken to a fraction of its former size and aquifers badly depleted.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · floating and onshore storageIran holds substantial crude on tankers and at terminals; the constraint is sanctioned export utilisation, not production. | moderate | 25days | WATCH |
| Refined products · domesticHeavy fuel subsidies and ageing refining capacity leave product cover thin despite large gas resources. | tight | 20days | WATCH |
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveState wheat reserve underpins subsidised bread; roughly a quarter of consumption is imported and drought repeatedly pressures harvests. | ~6 months | 180days | WATCH |
| Rice · strategic reserveRice stocks are thin and exposed to currency collapse driving up the cost of imported staples. | limited | 90days | CRITICAL |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/IRN | jq '.stress' > 0.91