Strait of Malacca chokepoint disruption.
prob 0.18 · severity 4.4 / 59 East Asian importers affected · crude + LNG + container freight
open scenario →$ shortage commodity get GAS.TTF > spot: $3.160/MMBtu > stress_index: 0.58 WATCH > updated 14:30 UTC
BRENT $70.38/b ▼ TTF €43.7/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
Daily closing prices, 2026-02-02 → 2026-05-15 — Iran-war energy-crisis window.
The European gas benchmark. Eased on a storage refill running ahead of the five-year mean.
EU Gas TTF (Henry Hub) is the US benchmark for natural gas, priced in US dollars per million British thermal units (USD/MMBtu) and settled at the Henry Hub interconnect in Louisiana. It is the reference price for North American gas markets and the floor under US LNG export economics. Current spot: $3.160/MMBtu.
The European gas benchmark. Eased on a storage refill running ahead of the five-year mean. At the latest reading, EU Gas TTF prints a spot of $3.160/MMBtu — a move of ▼3.67% over the past twenty-four hours and ▼12.4% across the trailing thirty days.
The v3.2 stress index places GAS.TTF at 0.58 — a watch reading on a composite that blends price momentum, inventory cover, supplier concentration and geopolitical exposure. The metric is recomputed on every ingestion cycle, and the weekly delta is the line worth tracking rather than the absolute level.
For operators, the question is not the spot itself but the buffer behind it. A tightening reading on EU Gas TTF compounds with any incident on a shared transit route or producer, and the cascade is rarely linear. The scenarios below carry GAS.TTF as an explicit input — each one is wargamed and reviewed against this commodity's exposure profile.