$ shortage scenario get pakistan-fx-2026 > status: 0.33 WATCH > severity 3.7 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-07
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
Pakistan · fuel + LNG + fertilizer import financing
A renewed balance-of-payments crisis depletes Pakistan's foreign-exchange reserves to the point where it cannot finance routine fuel and LNG cargoes.
Pakistan · fuel + LNG + fertilizer import financing
LNG and crude cargo purchases stall, forcing power load-shedding; wheat and fertilizer affordability deteriorates and reliance on emergency IMF and bilateral support deepens.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.