Pakistan foreign-exchange crisis halts fuel imports.
prob 0.33 · severity 3.7 / 5Pakistan · fuel + LNG + fertilizer import financing
open scenario →$ shortage commodity get FRT.UREA > spot: $865/t > stress_index: 0.77 CRITICAL > updated 14:28 UTC
BRENT $70.38/b ▼ TTF €43.7/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
Daily closing prices, 2026-02-02 → 2026-05-15 — Iran-war energy-crisis window.
Granular urea. The pre-monsoon arithmetic for South Asian agriculture is turning tight.
Urea Granular is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer (46% N content), produced by reacting natural gas with atmospheric nitrogen via the Haber-Bosch process. Roughly half the world's food calories depend on nitrogen fixed this way. Spot: $865/t, stress index 0.77.
Granular urea. The pre-monsoon arithmetic for South Asian agriculture is turning tight. At the latest reading, Urea Granular prints a spot of $865/t — a move of ▲2.71% over the past twenty-four hours and ▲14.6% across the trailing thirty days.
The v3.2 stress index places FRT.UREA at 0.77 — a critical reading on a composite that blends price momentum, inventory cover, supplier concentration and geopolitical exposure. The metric is recomputed on every ingestion cycle, and the weekly delta is the line worth tracking rather than the absolute level.
For operators, the question is not the spot itself but the buffer behind it. A tightening reading on Urea Granular compounds with any incident on a shared transit route or producer, and the cascade is rarely linear. The scenarios below carry FRT.UREA as an explicit input — each one is wargamed and reviewed against this commodity's exposure profile.