$ shortage scenario get eu-industrial-demand-destruction-2026 > status: 0.52 WATCH > severity 3.4 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-08
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer
High electricity and gas prices persist long enough that energy-intensive European industry — chemicals, metals, glass, fertilizer — permanently curtails or relocates capacity.
14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer
Output cuts cascade through automotive and manufacturing supply chains; insolvencies rise across central Europe and the loss of ammonia capacity tightens the regional fertilizer balance.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.