Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get DEU > stress_index: 0.42 STABLE > 9 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $70.5/b ▲ TTF €43.7/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Germany is Europe's largest economy and a major net energy importer, having replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG, Norwegian supply and accelerated renewables after 2022. It maintains the EU-mandated 90 days of oil-import cover and well-filled gas storage. Domestic cereal production roughly matches demand, leaving food supply comparatively secure.
Recent dry summers have lowered the Rhine and groundwater levels, straining inland navigation and agriculture.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · EBV compulsory reserveThe Erdölbevorratungsverband holds the legally mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover, the EU and IEA obligation. | ~24 Mt crude and products | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · underground storageEurope's largest gas storage fleet; binding EU filling targets were relaxed after a costly low-wind winter draw. | ~24 Bcm capacity | 60days | WATCH |
| Refined products · within EBV reserveThe EBV obligation covers gasoline, diesel and heating oil alongside crude. | included above | 90days | STABLE |
| Grain · civil emergency stocksFederal civil-defence food reserve of grain, legumes and condensed milk; domestic cereal output broadly matches demand. | ~0.8 Mt | 30days | STABLE |
| EU Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 145 Mb | 85days | 80.6 % |
| EU Diesel / Gas Oil Reserves | 70 Mb | 62days | — |
| EU Gasoline Reserves | 14 Mb | 95days | — |
| EU Kerosene / Jet Fuel Reserves | n/a | 26days | — |
| EU Natural Gas Storage | 6.99 BCM | — | 30.0 % |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/DEU | jq '.stress' > 0.42