$ shortage scenario get eu-cold-snap-2026 > status: 0.41 WATCH > severity 3.2 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-12
BRENT $91.84/b ▲ TTF €63.73/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 304.8 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.3 ▼
EU-wide exposure · gas storage + LNG procurement cost
A prolonged cold, low-wind spell forces an accelerated draw on European gas storage in the closing weeks of the heating season.
EU-wide exposure · gas storage + LNG procurement cost
German and wider EU storage exits winter near multi-year lows, raising the cost of the summer refill, tightening the LNG balance and lifting TTF through the shoulder season.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.