Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get BEL > stress_index: 0.46 STABLE > 8 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Belgium imports essentially all of its oil and gas but is a major European energy gateway, home to the Antwerp refining and petrochemical cluster and the Zeebrugge LNG terminal that re-exports gas across north-west Europe. It extended its nuclear reactors after reversing a planned phase-out. Domestic cereal output covers only part of demand, though the country is a large food re-exporter.
Belgium is densely populated with limited storage; dry summers periodically lower river and canal levels.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · APETRA compulsory reserveAPETRA holds the legally mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover required by the EU and IEA. | ~90 days | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · Zeebrugge LNG and storageThe Zeebrugge LNG terminal and limited underground storage support both domestic supply and re-export flows across north-west Europe. | regional buffer | 25days | WATCH |
| Refined products · Antwerp clusterThe Antwerp refining and petrochemical complex provides deep product inventories and processing capacity. | large | 40days | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial and EU stocksBelgium imports a substantial share of its cereals; the buffer relies on commercial stocks and the EU single market. | moderate | 45days | WATCH |
| EU Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 14 Mb | 85days | 77.8 % |
| EU Diesel / Gas Oil Reserves | 14 Mb | 55days | — |
| EU Gasoline Reserves | 1.5 Mb | 65days | — |
| EU Kerosene / Jet Fuel Reserves | n/a | 21days | — |
| EU Natural Gas Storage | 0.24 BCM | — | 31.0 % |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/BEL | jq '.stress' > 0.46