shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-03 16:59:58 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get gulf-refinery-2026
> status: 0.23 WATCH
> severity 3.6 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-11

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.13/b ●
TTF       €44.25/MWh ●
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.8 ▼
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%
~/scenarios/gulf-refinery-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/gulf-refinery-2026
// GULF-REFINERY-2026 · WATCH

Gulf refinery and export-terminal outage.

Gulf exporters + product importers · crude loadings + refined product

WATCHSTATUSWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.23
WATCHSEVERITY3.6/ 5
WATCHLAST REVIEW2026-05-11
probability 0.23
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario GULF-REFINERY-2026·last revision 2026-05-11
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-11

Gulf refinery and export-terminal outage.

// The hypothesis

A drone or missile strike, or a major accident, removes significant refining and crude-loading capacity at a Gulf coast facility.

Gulf exporters + product importers · crude loadings + refined product

// Modelled impact

Regional product supply tightens and crude loadings slip; Saudi, Emirati and Iraqi export schedules are disrupted and refined-product cracks widen across the Indian Ocean basin.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

OIL.BRTBrent Crude · spot $72.13/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Saudi Arabia / SAUregion MENA · stress 0.42United Arab Emirates / AREregion MENA · stress 0.38Iraq / IRQregion MENA · stress 0.61

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40