Gulf hydrocarbon export disruption.
prob 0.38
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 10 Gulf and Red Sea economies · oil + LNG exports$ shortage country get SAU > stress_index: 0.42 STABLE > 8 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $88.52/b ● TTF €61.42/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 304.8 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.3 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Saudi Arabia is the world's largest crude exporter and holds the bulk of global spare production capacity, making it the central swing supplier to oil markets. It produces and consumes its gas domestically. With minimal arable land it imports almost all of its cereals, leaving food security entirely dependent on trade and reserves.
Saudi Arabia has no permanent rivers or lakes and depends on desalination and depleting fossil aquifers under extreme water stress.
No major lake or reservoir
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · spare production capacitySaudi Arabia holds the bulk of global spare capacity — barrels that can be brought online within weeks rather than stored stock. | ~3 mb/d | — | STABLE |
| Crude · commercial and offshore inventoriesDomestic tank farms plus leased storage in Asia (Okinawa) and Egypt position barrels close to customers. | large | 40days | STABLE |
| Refined products · domesticSupported by major domestic refining capacity at Ras Tanura, Yanbu and Jazan. | adequate | 35days | STABLE |
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveGFSA maintains a roughly six-month wheat reserve; almost all cereal is imported, so the buffer is the principal food-security tool. | ~3.5 Mt | 180days | WATCH |
| Rice · strategic reserveState rice stocks held against the country's near-total dependence on imported staples. | ~0.9 Mt | 150days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/SAU | jq '.stress' > 0.42