shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-19 01:50:31 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get balkans-blackout-cascade-2026
> status: 0.41 WATCH
> severity 3.6 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-06

// readout · live

BRENT     $92.06/b ▲
TTF       €63.92/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    298.7 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$92.06▲0.57%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.79● 0.0%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▲0.59%BRENT$92.06▲0.57%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.79● 0.0%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▲0.59%
~/scenarios/balkans-blackout-cascade-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/balkans-blackout-cascade-2026
// BALKANS-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Cascading blackouts across the Western Balkans.

6 Western Balkan grids · electricity + industry

WATCHSTATUSWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.41
WATCHSEVERITY3.6/ 5
WATCHLAST REVIEW2026-05-06
probability 0.41
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario BALKANS-GRID-2026·last revision 2026-05-06
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-06

Cascading blackouts across the Western Balkans.

// The hypothesis

Ageing coal-reliant grids in the Western Balkans, short of electricity imports during a regional cold snap, suffer cascading load-shedding and blackouts.

6 Western Balkan grids · electricity + industry

// Modelled impact

Industrial users are curtailed for extended periods, metals and mining output falls, and emergency import contracts are signed at punitive prices.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

GAS.TTFEU Gas TTF · spot $2.790/MMBtu

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Serbia / SRBregion Europe · stress 0.47Bosnia and Herzegovina / BIHregion Europe · stress 0.49Albania / ALBregion Europe · stress 0.42North Macedonia / MKDregion Europe · stress 0.45Montenegro / MNEregion Europe · stress 0.41Kosovo / XKXregion Europe · stress 0.55

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob 0.50