shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-07-03 16:59:58 UTCbuild 27d88d1 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
v0.3 · brussels · build f3a2c81
● online · 47/47 sources · 312ms

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get australia-nz-energy-2026
> status: 0.30 MONITORING
> severity 2.3 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-05

// readout · live

BRENT     $72.13/b ●
TTF       €44.25/MWh ●
OPEC_ORB  n/a
SPR_US    331.2 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.8 ▼
auto-refresh 60slatency 312msbuild 0.3.0commit f3a2c81UTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%BRENT$72.13● 0.0%TTF€44.25● 0.0%HH$3.25● 0.0%SPR_US331.2 Mb17.0dEU_GAS47.7%18c avgFAO_FFPI130.8▼0.2%WHT$6.00/bu● 0.0%
~/scenarios/australia-nz-energy-2026·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/scenarios/australia-nz-energy-2026
// ANZ-ENERGY-2026 · MONITORING

Australia and New Zealand energy-market strain.

Australia + New Zealand · gas + hydro power

MONITORINGSTATUSMONITORING
MONITORINGPROBABILITY · INTERNAL0.30
MONITORINGSEVERITY2.3/ 5
MONITORINGLAST REVIEW2026-05-05
probability 0.30
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIAL · scenario analysisscenario ANZ-ENERGY-2026·last revision 2026-05-05
Scenario brief · v3.2 · 2026-05-05

Australia and New Zealand energy-market strain.

// The hypothesis

East-coast gas tightness in Australia and dry-year hydro risk in New Zealand pressure power prices despite strong fundamentals.

Australia + New Zealand · gas + hydro power

// Modelled impact

Industrial users face higher and more volatile electricity costs, though Australia's export position keeps the overall shock contained.

Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · interactive impact model

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · affected

GAS.TTFEU Gas TTF · spot $3.250/MMBtu

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · exposure

Australia / AUSregion Oceania · stress 0.30New Zealand / NZLregion Oceania · stress 0.35

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · related register

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob 0.49// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob 0.40