Australia and New Zealand energy-market strain.
prob 0.30
severity 2.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-05monitoring · Australia + New Zealand · gas + hydro power$ shortage country get NZL > stress_index: 0.35 STABLE > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
New Zealand generates most of its electricity from renewables — hydro, geothermal and wind — but since its only refinery closed in 2022 it imports all of its refined fuel. A major dairy and meat exporter, it runs a large food surplus. Remote maritime supply lines are its main fuel-security exposure.
New Zealand is water-rich, though eastern regions face recurrent drought and hydro lakes fall in dry years.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity · hydro, geothermal and windMost electricity is renewable, though dry years lower hydropower output. | renewable-led | — | STABLE |
| Oil · imported refined productSince the Marsden Point refinery closed, all refined fuel is imported. | ~30 days | 30days | WATCH |
| Food · large exportable surplusNew Zealand is a major dairy and meat exporter with a large food surplus. | very large | 200days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/NZL | jq '.stress' > 0.35