$ shortage scenario get caucasus-supply-risk-2026 > status: 0.31 MONITORING > severity 2.5 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-04
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
3 South Caucasus economies · transit + supply
Transit disputes and infrastructure limits expose the energy supply of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to disruption.
3 South Caucasus economies · transit + supply
Landlocked Armenia and Georgia face higher import costs; Azerbaijan's export flows are sensitive to any pipeline interruption.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.