South Caucasus energy-supply risk.
prob 0.31
severity 2.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-04monitoring · 3 South Caucasus economies · transit + supply$ shortage country get ARM > stress_index: 0.54 WATCH > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Armenia imports all of its fuel and gas, the latter mainly from Russia, and runs its power system on the ageing Metsamor nuclear plant, hydropower and gas. Landlocked and with two of its four borders closed, it depends on long, vulnerable transit routes through Georgia and Iran.
Armenia depends heavily on Lake Sevan, whose level is carefully managed against over-extraction.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported through the constrained corridors via Georgia and Iran. | limited | 30days | WATCH |
| Electricity · Metsamor nuclear and hydroPower leans on the ageing Metsamor nuclear plant, hydropower and imported gas. | concentrated | — | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksCereal output covers part of demand; wheat is largely imported. | limited | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ARM | jq '.stress' > 0.54