South Caucasus energy-supply risk.
prob 0.31
severity 2.5 / 5 · revision 2026-05-04monitoring · 3 South Caucasus economies · transit + supply$ shortage country get AZE > stress_index: 0.38 STABLE > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Azerbaijan is a crude-oil and natural-gas exporter whose Caspian output reaches Europe through the BTC oil pipeline and the Southern Gas Corridor, a role that has grown as Europe diversifies away from Russian gas. Maturing oil fields and an economy concentrated on hydrocarbons are its key exposures.
Azerbaijan faces growing water stress, with the Kura River and its reservoirs drawn down by drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · production and exportAzerbaijan exports Caspian crude westward through the BTC pipeline. | moderate | 40days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · Southern Gas CorridorGas exports to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor have grown as the EU diversifies supply. | export surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial and state stocksDomestic wheat covers part of demand; the balance is imported. | moderate | 55days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/AZE | jq '.stress' > 0.38