$ shortage scenario get us-gulf-hurricane-2026 > status: 0.44 MONITORING > severity 3.3 / 5 > reviewed 2026-05-06
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
US refining + LNG · European + Asian LNG buyers
A major hurricane makes landfall on the US Gulf Coast during the Atlantic season, forcing precautionary shutdowns of refining and LNG export capacity.
US refining + LNG · European + Asian LNG buyers
US refined-product output and LNG export cargoes are interrupted for one to three weeks; product prices firm domestically and LNG-dependent buyers in Europe and Asia face supply gaps.
Probability and severity are internal estimates on the v3.2 methodology. DEMO data, not for citation.
Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.