Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get BGR > stress_index: 0.47 WATCH > 6 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Bulgaria hosts one of the Balkans' largest refineries at Burgas and the Kozloduy nuclear plant, and has cut Russian gas dependence through the interconnector with Greece. It is a Black Sea grain exporter. Refining ownership and Black Sea security are its principal exposures.
Bulgaria faces periodic drought and ageing water infrastructure that causes local shortages.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · state war-time reserveThe State Reserve and War-Time Stocks Agency and industry hold the EU-mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover. | ~90 days | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · Chiren storage and IGB linkThe Chiren storage site and the interconnector with Greece have reduced reliance on Russian gas. | ~0.5 Bcm storage | 45days | WATCH |
| Grain · exportable surplusBulgaria runs a cereal surplus exported through Black Sea ports. | ample | 120days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/BGR | jq '.stress' > 0.47