Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get POL > stress_index: 0.43 STABLE > 6 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Poland has cut its historic reliance on Russian energy, opening the Baltic Pipe from Norway and the Świnoujście LNG terminal while keeping coal central to its power mix. It imports most of its oil and gas but produces a cereal surplus and is a significant European food exporter. Its frontline position alongside Ukraine adds a security dimension to supply logistics.
Poland has relatively low water resources per capita and faces recurrent agricultural drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · RARS compulsory reserveThe Government Strategic Reserves Agency (RARS) and industry hold the EU-mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover. | ~90 days | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · storage plus Baltic Pipe and LNGUnderground storage combined with Norwegian pipeline gas and the Świnoujście LNG terminal has replaced Russian supply. | ~3.6 Bcm storage | 50days | STABLE |
| Coal · power-sector stocksDomestic coal still anchors power generation; mine output is declining under EU decarbonisation rules. | large | 60days | WATCH |
| Grain · exportable surplusPoland runs a structural cereal surplus and is a significant European grain and food exporter. | ample | 110days | STABLE |
| EU Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 20 Mb | 90days | 83.3 % |
| EU Diesel / Gas Oil Reserves | 12 Mb | 48days | — |
| EU Gasoline Reserves | 3 Mb | 75days | — |
| EU Kerosene / Jet Fuel Reserves | n/a | 55days | — |
| EU Natural Gas Storage | 1.97 BCM | — | 48.0 % |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/POL | jq '.stress' > 0.43