Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get ITA > stress_index: 0.46 WATCH > 6 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Italy is a major European economy that imports the overwhelming majority of its oil and gas, having sharply cut Russian pipeline dependence after 2022 in favour of Algerian, Azeri and LNG supply. It hosts large refining capacity and a wide gas-storage fleet. Domestic cereal output — especially durum wheat for a vast food-processing industry — falls well short of demand.
Northern Italy's Po basin has suffered severe drought, with the great Alpine lakes and the Po running well below normal in dry years.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · OCSIT compulsory reserveOCSIT and industry hold the EU-mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover. | ~90 days | 90days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · underground storageA large storage fleet buffers winter demand; supply has been rerouted to Algeria, Azerbaijan and LNG after Russian pipeline gas was cut. | ~17 Bcm | 55days | WATCH |
| Refined products · domestic refiningSubstantial domestic refining capacity supports refined-product cover. | adequate | 40days | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial stocksDurum and soft-wheat stocks depend on imports for a major pasta and milling industry. | moderate | 50days | WATCH |
| EU Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 60 Mb | 75days | 78.9 % |
| EU Diesel / Gas Oil Reserves | 30 Mb | 50days | — |
| EU Gasoline Reserves | 6 Mb | 80days | — |
| EU Kerosene / Jet Fuel Reserves | n/a | 15days | — |
| EU Natural Gas Storage | 7.86 BCM | — | 46.5 % |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ITA | jq '.stress' > 0.46