Sustained power prices force European industrial demand destruction.
prob 0.52
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 14 industrial economies · chemicals + metals + fertilizer$ shortage country get FRA > stress_index: 0.38 STABLE > 9 events · 5 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
France draws most of its electricity from a large nuclear fleet, which keeps it a net power exporter, but it imports virtually all of its crude oil and natural gas. It is the European Union's largest cereal producer and a major wheat exporter, leaving food supply secure though exposed to weather. It holds the mandated 90-plus days of strategic oil cover.
Successive dry years have lowered French rivers, reservoirs and groundwater, prompting summer water restrictions.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · SAGESS strategic reserveSAGESS holds the legally mandated strategic oil stocks, around 90-plus days of net imports under the EU and IEA obligation. | ~17 Mt crude and products | 99days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · underground storageOperators must meet regulated end-of-summer filling targets; France has no domestic production and relies on pipeline imports and LNG. | ~130 TWh capacity | 45days | WATCH |
| Nuclear fuel · utility inventoriesEDF maintains multi-year inventories of enriched uranium and fabricated fuel assemblies, insulating power generation from short-term supply shocks. | multi-year | 365days | STABLE |
| Grain · exportable surplusAs the EU's largest cereal producer France runs a structural wheat and maize surplus; there is no state reserve but cooperative and commercial stocks are deep. | ample | 120days | STABLE |
| EU Strategic Petroleum Reserves | 115 Mb | 96days | 95.8 % |
| EU Diesel / Gas Oil Reserves | 57 Mb | 70days | — |
| EU Gasoline Reserves | 10 Mb | 105days | — |
| EU Kerosene / Jet Fuel Reserves | n/a | 60days | — |
| EU Natural Gas Storage | 4.82 BCM | — | 37.1 % |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/FRA | jq '.stress' > 0.38