Pacific island fuel crisis.
prob 0.49
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09elevated · 12 Pacific island economies · diesel + power$ shortage country get TON > stress_index: 0.60 WATCH > 2 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Tonga imports all of its fuel and most of its food, relying on diesel generation with expanding solar. A small Pacific kingdom dependent on remittances and agriculture, it is acutely exposed to cyclones — and a 2022 volcanic eruption and tsunami underlined its vulnerability.
Tonga has no rivers or lakes and depends on rainwater and thin groundwater lenses under recurrent drought.
No major lake or reservoir
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported to a small island kingdom. | moderate | 25days | WATCH |
| Electricity · diesel and solarDiesel generation is being supplemented by expanding solar. | transitioning | — | WATCH |
| Food · commercial stocksMost staple food is imported. | limited | 30days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/TON | jq '.stress' > 0.60