West African power deficit.
prob 0.47
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-07watch · 13 West African economies · power + industry$ shortage country get NGA > stress_index: 0.64 WATCH > 3 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and most populous country, yet for years it imported most of its refined fuel because domestic refineries were dilapidated — a dependence the new Dangote refinery is beginning to reverse. Oil theft, pipeline sabotage and underinvestment cap crude output. Power supply is chronically short.
Nigeria's far north faces recurrent drought, and Lake Chad on its border has shrunk dramatically over decades.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · production and exportAfrica's largest oil producer, though theft and underinvestment cap output. | ~1.4 mb/d output | 20days | WATCH |
| Refined products · Dangote refinery and importsThe vast Dangote refinery is starting to cut decades of fuel-import reliance. | transitioning | 25days | WATCH |
| Electricity · gas, hydro and an unstable gridGeneration and the grid fall far short of demand; self-generation is widespread. | fragile | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · commercial stocksDomestic output covers most cereal demand; rice and wheat are partly imported. | moderate | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/NGA | jq '.stress' > 0.64