European winter gas-supply squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 4.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 45 European markets · gas + power + storage refill$ shortage country get EST > stress_index: 0.42 STABLE > 4 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Estonia is unusual in Europe for generating most of its power from domestic oil shale, which keeps its energy-import dependence low though carbon-intensive. It severed Russian links and joined the continental grid in 2025, with LNG access through neighbouring terminals. A small isolated grid and the oil-shale phase-out are its main exposures.
Estonia is water-rich, with Lake Peipus among the largest lakes in Europe.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · OSPA compulsory reserveThe Estonian Stockpiling Centre holds the EU-mandated 90 days of net oil-import cover. | ~90 days | 90days | STABLE |
| Electricity · oil-shale generationDomestic oil shale covers most power generation but faces decarbonisation pressure and a planned phase-out. | domestic base | — | WATCH |
| Grain · exportable surplusDomestic cereal output exceeds demand, leaving an exportable surplus. | ample | 110days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/EST | jq '.stress' > 0.42