shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 16:50:27 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get southeast-asia-grid-strain-2026
> status: 0.42 WATCH
> severity 3.0 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-06

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.37/b ▼
TTF       €63.92/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    298.7 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%
~/scenarios/southeast-asia-grid-strain-2026·metodologia: v3.2cita · /api/v1/scenarios/southeast-asia-grid-strain-2026
// SEASIA-GRID-2026 · WATCH

Tensione sulle reti del Sud-est asiatico.

11 economie del Sud-est asiatico · elettricità + manifattura

WATCHSTATOWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITÀ · INTERNA0.42
WATCHGRAVITÀ3.0/ 5
WATCHULTIMA REVISIONE2026-05-06
probability 0.42
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIALE · analisi dello scenarioscenario SEASIA-GRID-2026·ultima revisione 2026-05-06
Briefing dello scenario · v3.2 · 2026-05-06

Tensione sulle reti del Sud-est asiatico.

// L'ipotesi

Le ondate di calore e il costo del carburante importato spingono i sistemi elettrici del Sud-est asiatico al limite durante la domanda di picco.

11 economie del Sud-est asiatico · elettricità + manifattura

// Impatto modellato

I poli manifatturieri subiscono cali di tensione e distacchi, rincarando le filiere di elettronica, tessile e automotive in tutta la regione.

Probabilità e gravità sono stime interne basate sulla metodologia v3.2. Dati DEMO, non citabili.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · modello d'impatto interattivo

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · interessate

GAS.TTFGas UE TTF · a pronti $2.750/MMBtuOIL.BRTGreggio Brent · a pronti $91.37/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · esposizione

Indonesia / IDNregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.40Vietnam / VNMregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.44Thailandia / THAregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.43Filippine / PHLregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.55Malaysia / MYSregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.36Cambogia / KHMregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.50Laos / LAOregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.50Singapore / SGPregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.46Brunei / BRNregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.34Timor Est / TLSregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.58Birmania / MMRregione Southeast Asia · stress 0.78

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · registro correlato

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob. 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob. 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob. 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.50// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob. 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob. 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob. 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob. 0.50