shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-09-11 00:00:00 UTCbuild 2215125 · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get gulf-export-disruption-2026
> status: 0.38 WATCH
> severity 4.0 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-08

// readout · live

BRENT     $105.4/b ▼
TTF       €81.97/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    286.6 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  133.3 ▲
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$105.35▼3.95%TTF€81.97▲3.80%HH$2.82▼0.70%SPR_US286.6 Mb14.7dEU_GAS69.9%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI133.3▲1.9%WHT$7.34/bu▼0.98%BRENT$105.35▼3.95%TTF€81.97▲3.80%HH$2.82▼0.70%SPR_US286.6 Mb14.7dEU_GAS69.9%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI133.3▲1.9%WHT$7.34/bu▼0.98%
~/scenarios/gulf-export-disruption-2026·metodologia: v3.2cita · /api/v1/scenarios/gulf-export-disruption-2026
// GULF-EXPORT-2026 · WATCH

Disruzione delle esportazioni di idrocarburi del Golfo.

10 economie del Golfo e del Mar Rosso · esportazioni di petrolio + GNL

WATCHSTATOWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITÀ · INTERNA0.38
WATCHGRAVITÀ4.0/ 5
WATCHULTIMA REVISIONE2026-05-08
probability 0.38
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIALE · analisi dello scenarioscenario GULF-EXPORT-2026·ultima revisione 2026-05-08
Briefing dello scenario · v3.2 · 2026-05-08

Disruzione delle esportazioni di idrocarburi del Golfo.

// L'ipotesi

Un'escalation intorno allo Stretto di Hormuz interrompe le esportazioni di greggio e GNL del Golfo per un periodo prolungato.

10 economie del Golfo e del Mar Rosso · esportazioni di petrolio + GNL

// Impatto modellato

I produttori perdono ricavi da esportazione e gli acquirenti asiatici e globali si contendono carichi alternativi, facendo salire i prezzi di petrolio e gas in tutto il mondo.

Probabilità e gravità sono stime interne basate sulla metodologia v3.2. Dati DEMO, non citabili.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · modello d'impatto interattivo

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · interessate

OIL.BRTGreggio Brent · a pronti $105.43/bblGAS.TTFGas UE TTF · a pronti $2.820/MMBtu

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · esposizione

Arabia Saudita / SAUregione MENA · stress 0.42Emirati Arabi Uniti / AREregione MENA · stress 0.38Qatar / QATregione MENA · stress 0.30Kuwait / KWTregione MENA · stress 0.34Oman / OMNregione MENA · stress 0.36Bahrein / BHRregione MENA · stress 0.40Iran / IRNregione MENA · stress 0.91Iraq / IRQregione MENA · stress 0.61Yemen / YEMregione MENA · stress 0.93Egitto / EGYregione MENA · stress 0.69

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · registro correlato

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob. 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob. 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob. 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.31// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob. 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob. 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob. 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob. 0.50